Order Code IB96038
CRS Issue Brief for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
U.S. International Trade:
Data and Forecasts
Updated August 16, 2005
Dick K. Nanto and Thomas Lum
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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CONTENTS
SUMMARY
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Current Account Balance
Forecasts
U.S. Bilateral and Sectoral Trade Balances

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U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts
SUMMARY
In 2004 the United States incurred a
sive. Central banks in countries, such as
record merchandise trade deficit of $651
China and Japan, however, have been inter-
billion on a Census basis and $665 billion on
vening in foreign exchange markets to keep
a balance-of-payments basis (BoP). A surplus
the value of their currencies from appreciating
in services trade of $48 billion gave a deficit
significantly (if at all) against the dollar.
of $617 billion on goods and services (BoP)
for the year — up $121 billion or 24.3% from
Trade deficits are a concern for Congress
the $496.5 billion deficit in 2003.
because they may generate trade friction and
pressures for the government to do more to
In 2004, U.S. exports of goods and ser-
open foreign markets, to shield U.S. producers
vices totaled $1.147 trillion, compared with
from foreign competition, or to assist U.S.
$1.020 trillion in 2003 and $0.975 trillion in
industries to become more competitive. As
2002. In 2004, U.S. imports were $1.764
the deficit increases, the risk also rises of a
trillion, compared with $1.517 trillion in 2003,
precipitous drop in the value of the dollar and
and $1.387 trillion (balance of payments
disruption in financial markets.
basis) in 2002. Year-to-date (June 2005), the
trade deficit in goods and services, at $342.8
The broadest measure of U.S. interna-
billion, was 17.8% higher compared to the
tional economic transactions is the balance on
same period in 2004.
current account. In addition to merchandise
trade, it includes trade in services and unilat-
Since 1976, the United States has in-
eral transfers. In 2004, the current account
curred continual merchandise trade deficits.
deficit rose to $665.9 billion from $530.6
They increased dramatically from $36.5 bil-
billion in 2003. After reaching a peak of
lion in 1982 to a peak in 1987 at $159.6 bil-
$160.7 billion in 1987, the current account
lion. The deficit dropped to $74.1 billion in
deficit fell steadily through 1991, when it
1991 but rose to $436.1 billion in 2000 and to
attained a surplus of $3.8 billion, before turn-
$532 billion in 2003. (Census basis).
ing into deficit again.
Overall U.S. trade deficits reflect a short-
In trade in advanced technology products,
age of savings in the domestic economy and a
the U.S. balance dropped from a surplus of
reliance on capital imports to finance that
$32.2 billion in 1997 to a deficit of $37.0
shortfall. Capital inflows serve to offset the
billion in 2004. In trade in passenger automo-
outflow of dollars to pay for imports. Move-
biles, the $98 billion U.S. deficit was mainly
ments in the exchange rate also help to bal-
with Canada, Germany, Korea, Japan, and
ance trade. The rising trade deficit (when not
Mexico. In imports of crude oil, major
matched by capital inflows) places downward
sources of the $132 billion in imports were
pressure on the value of the dollar which, in
Saudi Arabia, Canada, Venezuela, Mexico,
turn, helps to shrink the deficit by making
and Nigeria.
U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expen-
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
In 2004, the trade deficit in goods and services, at a record $617 billion (BoP basis), was
24% higher than in 2003. The 2004 deficit on goods trade with China was $162 billion
(Census basis), with the European Union (EU-15) was $104.5 billion, with Japan was $75.2
billion, with Canada was $65.8 billion, with Mexico was $45.1 billion, and with the Asian
Newly Industrialized Countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) was
$21.9 billion. Merchandise imports of $1,763.9 billion increased by 17% — particularly of
crude oil (up $32.7 billion), capital goods except automotive (up $48.0 billion), automotive
vehicles and parts (up $18.2 billion), and consumer goods (up $39.3 billion). Merchandise
exports of $807.6 billion rose by 13%, particularly of industrial supplies (up $30.5 billion),
capital goods except automotive (up $37.5 billion), automotive vehicles and parts (up $7.5
billion), and consumer goods (up $12.9 billion), but this was not enough to narrow the trade
deficit. Year-to-date (June 2005), the United States trade deficit in goods and services, at
$342.8 billion, was 17.8% higher compared to the same period in 2004. In June 2005, the
year-to-date deficit on goods trade with China (Census basis) was $90 billion, with Japan
was $41.6 billion, with OPEC was $40.9 billion, with the European Union was $56.3 billion,
with Canada was $32.6 billion, and with Mexico was $24 billion.
On July 21, 2005, Beijing announced that it would no longer peg China’s currency, the
yuan, to the U.S. dollar, and instead link it to a basket of major currencies. It is uncertain
how far the yuan will rise over time, and what effect such an appreciation would have on the
U.S. trade deficit globally and with the China. Some analysts argue that since about half of
China’s exports contain foreign components, an appreciation of the yuan would not result
in a proportionate rise in the prices of these exports.1
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Between 1980 and 1987, both the trade and current account deficits increased but then
diminished substantially between 1988 and 1991. As the American economy boomed over
the 1990s and into 2000, these deficits ballooned and became one of the few negatives in an
otherwise upbeat economic picture. Despite eliminating the federal budget deficit from
FY1998-2001, the trade deficit side of the so-called twin deficits continued to increase. The
recession of 2001 brought a slight easing of the trade deficit as import demand slackened,
but as the economy has been recovering in 2002-2004, the negative balances have grown
dramatically. This issue brief provides historical and current data as well as forecasts of U.S.
trade and current accounts.
U.S. trade balances are macroeconomic variables that may or may not indicate
underlying problems with the competitiveness of particular industries or what some refer to
as the competitiveness of a nation. The reason is that overall trade flows are determined,
within the framework of institutional barriers to trade and the activities of individual
industries, primarily by macroeconomic factors such as rates of growth, savings and
1 Paul Blustein, “China’s Currency Change May Ultimately Mean Little,” Washington Post, July 22,
2005.
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investment behavior (including government budget deficits/surpluses), international capital
flows, and exchange rates.
Increases in trade deficits may diminish economic growth, since net exports (exports
minus imports) are a component of gross domestic product. In the late 1980s and early
1990s, export growth was an important element in overall U.S. economic growth. In 1999,
merchandise exports accounted for about 8.5% of GDP, compared with 5.9% in 1990.
Recently, however, rising trade deficits have reduced total domestic demand in the economy,
although the deficits have been offset by rising consumer, business, and government demand.
Many economists fear that the rising U.S. trade and current account deficits could lead
to a large drop in the value of the U.S. dollar. The current account deficit now exceeds 5%
of GDP and is placing downward pressure on the dollar. If foreign investors stop offsetting
the deficit by buying dollar-denominated assets (in order to balance U.S. inflows and
outflows of dollars), the value of the dollar could drop precipitously. In that case, U.S.
interest rates would have to rise to attract more foreign investment, financial markets could
be disrupted, and inflationary pressures would increase. Foreign investment in dollar assets
along with purchases of securities by central banks of countries such as Japan and China
have been sufficient to keep the value of the dollar from falling too far. These central banks
have intervened regularly in currency markets to keep the value of their currencies relatively
stable with respect to the dollar. (In foreign currency reserves, Japan held $842.5 billion
[May 2005] and China had $659.1 billion [March 2005], and in U.S. Treasury securities, as
of April 2005, Japan held $685.2 billion and China $230.4 billion.) The Bank of Japan did
intervene extensively by buying dollars in 2003 and early 2004, but apparently has not done
so since early 2004. Despite this intervention, the value of the yen rose from 119 yen per
dollar in January 2003 to about 106 yen per dollar in March 2004. In the International
Monetary Fund’s July 2004 consultation with the United States, its directors reiterated their
long-standing concerns about the large U.S. current account deficit, which leaves the United
States “highly dependent upon private and official inflows from abroad.” The accompanying
IMF staff report concluded that the deficit is expected to remain at 5% and has the attendant
risk of abrupt adjustments of interest and exchange rates. Treasury officials countered that
they viewed the current account deficit as a reflection of the buoyancy of the U.S. economy
and weakness of foreign demand rather than a policy concern.2
The U.S. government compiles trade data in four different ways. The data on goods
trade are first compiled on a Census basis. These numbers are then adjusted and reported
monthly on a balance of payments (BoP) basis that includes adjustments for valuation,
coverage, and timing and excludes military transactions. The data are finally reported in
terms of national income and product accounts (NIPA). Bilateral and sectoral data are
reported only on a Census basis.
Export and import data also may be adjusted for inflation to gauge movement in trade
volumes as distinct from trade values. Conceptually, this procedure is analogous to adjusting
macroeconomic data from nominal to real values. The Census Bureau also reports imports
on a c.i.f. (cost-insurance-freight) basis which includes the value of insurance, international
shipping, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to U.S. ports of entry. The
2 IMF, Public Information Notice 04/77, July 30, 2004; IMF, IMF Country Report No. 04/230, July
2004, pp. 28, 38.
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Customs, or f.a.s. (free-alongside-ship), data do not include these supplementary costs. The
data on merchandise trade for the United States do not include insurance and freight charges.
These are counted in U.S. services trade, but other countries commonly report merchandise
trade figures that include insurance and freight charges.
Figure 1. U.S. Merchandise Exports, Imports, Trade Balance,
and Real Effective Dollar Exchange Rate Index, 1981-2004
$ Billions
Exchange Rate Index
1600
300
1400
Real Effective Dollar
1200
Exchange Rate (Right Scale)
Exports
1000
Imports
200
800
   
600

 

               
100
400
200
0
0
-200
Trade Balance
-400
-100
-600
-800
-1000
-200
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Sources: U.S. Department ofCommerce; IMF. Note: For Exchange Rate, 1995= 100
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
The merchandise
(goods) trade balance is
Figure 2. U.S. Exports, Imports, and
the most widely known
Trade Balance by Volume (2000 base),
and frequently used
1990-2004
i n d i c a t o r o f U . S .
international economic
1500
activity (see Figure 1). In
1250
2 0 0 4 , t o t a l U . S .
U.S. Imports
1000
merchandise trade on a
750
balance of payments basis
500
amounted to $2.28
trillion, with exports of
250
U.S. Exports
$807 billion and imports
0
of $1,473 billion. The
-250
U.S. merchandise trade
-500
deficit rose 22% in 2004
Trade Balance
-750
to $665 billion following
-1000
a 13% rise in both 2003
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2
3
4
and in 2002. Prior to
1992, the deficit had
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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decreased for 4 consecutive years, from a previous peak of $159.6 billion in 1987 to $76.9
billion in 1991. The increase in the trade deficit to 2000 was due largely to sluggish demand
for U.S. exports, caused primarily by a combination of capital inflows into the U.S. market,
slow economic recoveries in other countries, and increasing demand for imports caused
mainly by faster economic growth in the United States. As a share of gross domestic product
(GDP), the deficit on goods trade rose from 1.9% in 1990 to 5.1% in 2003 and 5.6% in 2004.
As shown in Table 1 and Figure 2, U.S. merchandise exports decreased in 1998 for the
first time since 1985, and again fell in 2001 and 2002 in response to the global slowdown.
In general, however, they have been increasing each year. The growth of imports has also
been high, although they too fell by 4.4% in 2001 before recovering in 2002. In 2003, import
growth was nearly double export growth, although in 2004, export growth almost caught up
with that of imports. However, since U.S. imports are about 80% greater than U.S. exports,
exports must grow 80% faster than imports just for the deficit to remain constant.
Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Like other economic variables, exports and imports, reported in terms of their values,
can change merely because prices change. Trade data, therefore, can be adjusted for inflation
by dividing by a price index. Such corrected data are referred to as “volume” and not “real,”
because some trade commodities actually are reported in volume terms (e.g., tons of wheat).
The volume data provide a more accurate picture of how the underlying flows of
merchandise are changing.
As shown in Table 2 and
Figure 3. Annual Growth in U.S.
Figure 3, the constant-dollar value,
Merchandise Exports and Imports
or physical volume, of merchandise
1982-2004
exports increased by 8.8% in 2004,
Percent
30
up from 2.6% in 2003, -4.5% in
2002, and 6.3% in 2001. The
25
Import
physical volume of imports rose by
Growth
20
10.8% in 2004, an increase from
Export Growth
15
5.4% in 2003, 3.4% in 2002, and a
10
fall of 3.6% in 2001. Because the
5
growth of merchandise imports is
0
higher than the growth of exports
and because imports exceed exports
-5
by over 80% on a physical volume
-10
basis, exports would have to grow
-15
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
more than 80% faster than imports
Year
just for the U.S. trade deficit in terms
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
of volume to remain constant. Since
import growth actually exceeded export growth in 2004, the deficit increased. In recent
years, the deficit in volume terms has varied relative to the deficit in value terms partly
because of fluctuations in oil import prices (when oil prices rise, the deficit in value rises
relative to that in volume terms).
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Current Account Balance
The current account provides a broader measure of U.S. trade because it includes
services, investment income, and unilateral transfers in addition to merchandise. (See Figure
4) The balance on services includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance
payments, and other government and private services. The balance on investment income
includes income received on U.S. assets abroad minus income paid on foreign assets in the
U.S. Unilateral transfers are international transfers of funds for which there is no quid pro
quo. These include private gifts, remittances, pension payments, and government grants
(foreign aid). Data on the current account lag those on trade by several months.
Table 3 summarizes the
Figure 4. U.S. Current Account and
components of the U.S. current
Merchandise Trade Balances, 1982- 2004
account. The U.S. deficit on
$Billions
current account increased to $665.9
100
billion from $530.7 billion in 2003.
0
As a share of U.S. GDP, this deficit
-100
rose to 5.7% from 4.8% in 2003.
Historically, the current account
-200
deficit fell from a then record-high
-300
Current Account Balance
$160.7 billion in 1987, to $79.0
-400
Merchandise Trade
billion in 1990, and rose to a $3.7
Balance
billion surplus in 1991 (primarily
-500
because of payments to fund the
-600
Gulf War by Japan and other
-700
nations). However, in 1992, the
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3
4
current account deficit increased
Year
significantly to $48.0 billion and
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
again to $82.0 billion in 1993 and
$118.0 billion in 1994. It rose to $209.6 billion in 1998 and to $413.4 billion in 2000 or
4.2% of GDP — up from 1.3% in 1990. In 2001, the current account deficit fell to $385.7
billion or 3.9% of GDP, but rose again to $473.9 billion in 2002, $530.7 billion in 2003, and
$665.9 billion in 2004.
Since the merchandise trade balance comprises the greater part of the current account,
the two tend to track each other. Unlike the merchandise trade balance, however, the
services account has been in surplus since 1975. In 2004, the United States surplus in its
services trade was $48.5 billion. Since Americans are such large investors in foreign
economies, the United States traditionally has had a surplus in its investment income. This
surplus on income from investments, which reached a high of $36.3 billion in 1983, dropped
to $7.2 billion in 2002, rebounded to $33.3 billion in 2003, and was $24 billion in 2004. The
U.S. deficit in unilateral transfers (primarily dollars sent abroad by foreign workers and
recent immigrants) at an estimated $72.9 billion in 2004 reflects a rising trend and more than
double the level of the late-1980s. This partially offsets the U.S. surplus in services.
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Forecasts
According to Global Insight, a leading U.S. economic forecasting firm, in 2005 the U.S.
merchandise (goods) trade deficit is expected to increase to about $755 billion on a
balance-of-payments basis (see Figure 5). In 2006, the deficit is projected to decrease
slightly to $728 billion (see Table 4). As for the U.S. current account deficit, Global Insight
projects it to peak at $772 billion in 2005.
Figure 6 shows the current
Figure 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade and Current
account balance as a percent of
Account Deficit, 1997 to 2007 (forecast) in
U.S. gross domestic product. It
Current Dollars
has grown in magnitude from
$Billions
near zero in 1980 to 3.4% in
0
Actual
Forecast
1987, dropped about zero in
1991 and has risen to 5.7% in
Current Account
-200
2004 (exceeding the 5% level
considered to warrant caution by
the International Monetary
-400
Fund) and is projected to rise
more before declining in 2007.
-600
Goods Trade
-800
-1000
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: See Table 4.
Year
U.S. Bilateral and Sectoral Trade Balances
T h e o v e r a l l U . S .
Figure 6. U.S. Current Account Balance as a
merchandise trade balance Percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product, 1985
consists of deficits or surpluses
to 2007 (forecast)
with all trading partners. Many
Percent
Actual
Forecast
economists view this figure as
8
more significant than bilateral
7
6.6 6.6
trade balances, since rising
6.2
6
5.7
deficits with some nations are
4.8
5
often offset by declining deficits
4.5
4.2
3.8
or growing surpluses with
4
3.3 3.4
3.1
others. Nonetheless, abnormally
2.8
3
2.4
2.3
large or rapidly increasing trade
1.8
2
1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.3
deficits with particular countries
1.2
0.8
1
are often viewed as indicators
0
that underlying problems may
-0.1
exist with market access, the
-1
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
competitiveness of particular
Year
i n d u s t r i e s , c u r r e n c y
Data from U.S. Department of Commerce. Forecasts by Global Insight, Inc.
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misalignment, or macroeconomic adjustment. Table 5 shows U.S. trade balances with
selected nations.
Most of the U.S. trade deficit can be accounted for by trade with China, Japan, Canada,
Mexico, and Germany. Trade with the oil exporting countries also is in deficit. U.S. trade
surpluses occur in trade with the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, Hong Kong, and other
countries (see Figure 7). In 2004, Canada was America’s largest merchandise trading
partner, followed by Mexico, China, Japan, and Germany (China overtook Japan for third
place in 2003). Table 6 lists the United States’ top trading partners ranked by trade turnover
(imports plus exports). Trade with Canada accounts for 20% of total U.S. trade. By far,
Canada is the largest supplier of U.S. imports and the top purchaser of U.S. exports. Trade
with Mexico accounts for 12%, and trade with China at 10% now exceeds that with Japan
at 8%.
Figure 7. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances
with Selected Nations 2004
Country
China
-162
Japan
-75
Canada
-67
Germany
-46
Mexico
-45
Venezuela
-20
S. Korea
-20
Ireland
Deficit
-19
Italy
-17
Malyasia
-17
Saudi Arabia
-16
Nigeria
-15
Taiwan
-13
Thailand
-11
France
-11
U.K.
-10
India
-9
Sweden
-9
Russia
-9
UAR
3
Singapore
4
Belgium
4
Hong Kong
Surplus
6
Australia
7
Netherlands
12
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
$ Billions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Table 7 lists the U.S. top deficit trading partners (merchandise trade). In 2000, China
overtook Japan as the top U.S. deficit trading partner. The next highest deficit trading
partners are Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico, and Venezuela. China disputes U.S. data
which counts Chinese exports that pass through Hong Kong. China shows a trade surplus
with the United States of only $80.3 billion in 2004. Table 8 lists trade balances on goods,
services, and income, net unilateral transfers and current account balances for selected U.S.
trading partners in 2003.
Table 9 shows U.S. trade in advanced technology products. This includes about 500
commodity codes representing products whose technology is from a recognized high
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technology field (e.g., biotechnology) or that represent the leading technology in a field. The
United States long ran a surplus in these products, but that surplus dropped sharply in 2000
and turned into a deficit in 2002. The surplus decreased from $32.2 billion in 1997 to $29.6
billion in 1998, $19.1 billion in 1999, and $5.3 billion in 2000. In 2003, the $27.4 billion
deficit in U.S. trade in advanced technology products was a jump of 65% over 2002. In
2004, the deficit came to $37.0 billion.
Table 10 provides data on trade in passenger cars with major automobile producing
nations for 2003. This does not include foreign cars assembled in the United States. The
United States incurs the largest deficits in this trade with Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico,
and South Korea.
Figure 8. U.S. Balances of Trade in Goods and Services by
Month, 2004 and 2005 (in current dollars)
$Billions
20
Services 2005
Services 2004
0
-20
-40
Goods 2004
Goods 2005
-60
-80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Month
Table 11 show imports of crude petroleum by major country source. Roughly half
comes from OPEC with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria the predominant suppliers.
Half, however, comes from non-OPEC sources, such as Canada, Mexico, and Angola.
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Table 1. U.S. Exports, Imports, and Merchandise Trade Balances,
1982-2004
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Census Basis
Balance of Payments Basis
Exports
Imports
Trade
Exports
Imports
Trade
Year
f.a.s.a
Customs b
Balance
f.a.s.a
Customs b
Balance
1982
212.3
243.9
-31.6
211.2
247.6
-36.4
1983
201.7
261.7
-60.0
201.8
268.9
-67.1
1984
218.7
330.5
-111.8
219.9
332.4
-112.5
1985
212.6
336.4
-123.8
215.9
338.1
-122.2
1986
226.4
365.7
-139.3
223.3
368.4
-145.1
1987
253.9
406.3
-152.4
250.2
409.8
-159.6
1988
323.3
441.9
-118.6
320.2
447.2
-127
1989
362.9
473.4
-110.5
359.9
477.7
-117.8
1990
392.9
495.2
-102.3
387.4
498.4
-111
1991
421.8
487.1
-65.3
414.1
491
-76.9
1992
448.2
532.6
-84.4
439.6
536.5
-96.9
1993
464.8
580.5
-115.7
456.9
589.4
-132.5
1994
512.6
663.2
-150.6
502.9
668.7
-165.8
1995
584.7
743.5
-158.8
575.2
749.4
-174.2
1996
625.1
795.3
-170.2
612.1
803.1
-191
1997
689.2
869.7
-180.5
678.4
876.5
-198.1
1998
682.1
911.9
-229.8
670.4
917.1
-246.7
1999
695.8
1,024.6
-328.8
684
1030
-346
2000
781.9
1,218.0
-436.1
772
1224.4
-452.4
2001
730.9
1,142.3
-411.4
718.7
1145.9
-427.2
2002
693.5
1,163.6
-470.1
681.8
1,164.7
-482.9
2003
724.8
1,257.1
-532.3
713.1
1,260.7
-547.6
2004
819.0
1,469.9
-650.9
807.6
1,473.1
-665.5
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International
Transactions Accounts Data.
Note: Goods on a Census basis are adjusted to a Balance of Payments basis to include changes in
ownership that occur without goods passing into or out of the customs territory of the United States,
to eliminate duplication, and to value transactions according to a standard definition. Export
adjustments include counting military sales as services not goods, adding private gift parcels, and
foreign official gold sales from U.S. private dealers. Import adjustments include adding in inland
freight in Canada, foreign official gold sales to U.S. private dealers , and subtracting imports by U.S.
military agencies.
a. Exports are valued on the f.a.s. basis, which refers to the free-alongside-ship value at the port of
export and generally includes inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing
the goods alongside the carrier at the port of exportation.
b. Imports are valued as reported by the U.S. Customs Service. (Excludes import duties, the cost
of freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States.)
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Table 2. U.S. Merchandise Trade in Volume Terms, 2001-2004
(billions of chained 2000 dollars)
Export
Import
Net
Year
Exports
Imports
Growth
Growth
Exports
2001
723.6
-6.3
1,180.90
-3.6
-457.3
2002
691.1
-4.5
1,221.60
3.4
-530.5
2003
721.7
4.4
1,307.30
7.0
-585.6
2004
785.5
8.8
1,448.20
10.8
-662.7
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Products Accounts Table.
Table 3. U.S. Current Account Balances: 1985-2004
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Merchandise
Investment
Net
Current
Calendar
Services
Trade
Income
Unilateral
Account
Year
Balance b
Balance a
Balance c
Transfers d
Balance e
1985
-122.2
0.3
25.7
-22.0
-118.2
1986
-145.1
6.5
15.5
-24.1
-147.2
1987
-159.6
7.9
14.3
-23.3
-160.7
1988
-127.0
12.4
18.7
-25.3
-121.2
1989
-117.7
24.6
19.8
-26.2
- 99.5
1990
-111.0
30.2
28.6
-26.7
-79.0
1991
-76.9
45.8
24.1
10.8
3.7
1992
-96.9
57.8
24.2
-33.1
-48.0
1993
-132.5
62.3
25.3
-37.1
-82.0
1994
-165.8
67.4
17.1
-36.8
-118.0
1995
-174.2
77.9
20.9
-34.1
-109.5
1996
-191.0
87.1
22.3
-38.6
-120.2
1997
-198.1
90.0
12.6
-40.4
-136.0
1998
-246.7
81.8
3.8
-48.4
-209.6
1999
-346.0
82.8
13.2
-46.8
-296.8
2000
-452.4
74.1
20.6
-55.9
-413.4
2001
-427.2
64.5
23.6
-46.9
-385.7
2002
-482.9
61.2
7.2
-59.4
-473.9
2003
-547.6
51.0
33.3
-67.4
-530.7
2004
-665.5
48.4
24.1
-72.9
-665.9
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. International Transactions.
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private services,
and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ slightly as a result of rounding.

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Table 4. U.S. Merchandise and Current Account Trade:
Actual and Forecasts
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Forecast
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Merchandise Trade
Exports
Actual
772.0
681.8
713.1
807.5
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
909.6
987.1
1094.7
Imports
Actual
1224.4
1164.7
1260.7
1472.9
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
1698.7
1792.8
1872.5
Trade Balance
Actual
-452.4
-482.9
-547.6
-665.4
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
-780.8
-797.6
-770.3
Services Trade Balance
Actual
74.1
61.2
51.0
47.8
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
54.4
76.8
98.0
Current Account Balance
Actual
-413
-474
-531
-666
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
-818.5
-859.2
-843.1
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 2005; Global Insight, International Trade, May 2005.
All actual figures on a balance-of-payments basis.
a. Global Insight was created through the 2002 merger of Standard & Poor’s Data Resources Inc. (DRI) and
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
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Table 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances with Selected Nations:
2000-2004
(millions of U.S. dollars, Census Basis)
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Total
-436,104
-411,389
-470,104
-535,699
-651,521
North America
-76,475
-83,190
-86,920
-95,012
-110,832
Canada
-51,897
-53,266
-49,760
-54,396
-65,765
Mexico
-24,577
-29,924
-37,202
-40,616
-45,068
Western Europe
-59,152
-63,985
-89,218
-101,325
-114,077
European Union
-54,954
-60,856
-82,368
-94,262
-104,510
United Kingdom
-1,775
-599
-7,617
-8,772
-10,442
Germany
-29,064
-29,037
-35,852
-39,199
-45,855
France
-9,439
-10,400
-9,389
-12,153
-10,574
Italy
-13,982
-13,908
-14,201
-14,867
-17,378
Netherlands
12,165
10,024
8,471
9,731
11,682
European Free Trade
-4,634
-3,332
-6,324
-6,039
-7,544
Association (EFTA)
Former Soviet Republics
-6,922
-4,096
-4,503
-6,615
-9,829
Eastern Europe
-10,166
-7,678
-8,283
-11,211
-14,859
Pacific Rim Countries
-215,434
-194,393
-215,005
-229,968
-282,534
Japan
-81,555
-68,962
-70,055
-65,965
-75,194
China
-83,833
-83,045
-103,115
-123,961
-161,978
Newly Industrialized
-26,814
-21,093
-22,073
-20,867
-21,925
Countries (NICS)
Singapore
-1,372
2,712
1,429
1,418
4,295
Hong Kong
3,133
4,423
3,283
4,692
6,496
Taiwan
-16,097
-15,240
-13,805
-14,122
-12,886
Republic of Korea
-12,478
-12,988
-12,979
-12,865
-19,829
South/Central American
-38,233
-38,982
-17,902
-26,821
-37,323
Countries
Argentina
1,596
913
-1,595
-734
-359
Brazil
1,468
1,466
-3,403
-6,666
-7,294
Colombia
-3,297
-2,091
-2,018
-2,631
-2,785
OPEC
-48,012
-39,688
-34,482
-51,037
-71,867
Venezuela
-13,073
-9,552
-10,662
-14,305
-20,181
Indonesia -7,965
-7,605
-7,063
-7,000
-8,142
Saudi Arabia
-8,131
-7,363
-8,364
-13,473
-15,678
Nigeria
-9,816
-7,829
-4,907
-9,365
-14,694
Trade Balance equals Total Exports (f.a.s. value) minus General Imports (Customs value).
Sources: United States Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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Table 6. Top U.S. Trading Partners Ranked
by Total Merchandise Trade in 2004
(millions of U.S. dollars, Customs Basis)
Total
Rank
Country
Balance
Exports
Imports
Trade
World Total
-651,521
819,026
1,470,547
2,289,573
1
Canada
-65,765
190,163
255,928
446,091
2
Mexico
-45,068
110,775
155,843
266,618
3
China
-161,978
34,721
196,699
231,420
4
Japan
-75,194
54,400
129,595
183,995
5
Germany
-45,855
31,381
77,236
108,617
6
U.K.
-10,442
35,960
46,402
82,362
7
S. Korea
-19,829
26,333
46,163
72,496
8
Taiwan
-12,886
21,731
34,617
56,348
9
France
-10,574
21,240
31,814
53,054
10
Malaysia
-17,288
10,897
28,185
39,082
11
Italy
-17,378
10,711
28,089
38,800
12
Netherlands
11,682
24,286
12,605
36,891
13
Ireland
-19,276
8,166
27,442
35,608
14
Brazil
-7,294
13,863
21,157
35,020
15
Singapore
4,295
19,601
15,306
34,907
16
Venezuela -20,181
4,782
24,962
29,744
17
Belgium
4,428
16,877
12,448
29,325
18
Saudi Arabia
-15,678
5,245
20,924
26,169
19
Hong Kong
6,496
15,809
9,314
25,123
20
Thailand
-11,214
6,363
17,577
23,940
21
Israel
-5,329
-9,198
14,527
23,725
22
Australia
6,727
14,271
7,544
21,815
23
India
-9,467
6,095
15,562
21,657
24
Switzerland
-2,374
9,268
11,643
20,911
25
Nigeria
-14,694
1,552
16,246
17,798
26
Philippines
-2,072
7,072
9,144
16,216
27
Sweden
-9,421
3,265
12,687
15,952
28
Russia
-8,889
2,959
11,847
14,806
29
Spain
-835
6,640
7,476
14,116
30
Indonesia
-8,142
2,669
10,811
13,480
31
Colombia -2,785
4,504
7,290
11,794
32
Iraq
-7,658
856
8,515
9,371
33
South Africa
-2,772
3,172
5,944
9,116
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Note: Data are on a Census basis.
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Table 7. Top U.S. Merchandise Deficit Trading Partners, 2004
(millions of U.S. Dollars, Customs Basis)
Country
Balance
Exports
Imports
World
-651,521.0
819,026.2
1,470,547.1
China
-161,978.0
34,721.0
196,699.0
Japan
-75,194.5
54,400.2
129,594.7
Canada
-65,764.5
190,163.4
255,927.9
Germany -45,854.8
31,380.9
77,235.7
Mexico
-45,067.7
110,775.3
155,843.0
Venezuela
-20,180.6
4,781.8
24,962.5
S. Korea
-19,829.2
26,333.4
46,162.7
Ireland
-19,275.8
8,165.9
27,441.7
Italy
-17,377.9
10,710.8
28,088.6
Malaysia
-17,288.3
10,896.8
28,185.1
Saudi Arabia
-15,678.4
5,245.2
20,923.6
Nigeria -14,694.0
1,552.2
16,246.3
Taiwan -12,886.5
21,730.9
34,617.4
Thailand
-11,214.2
6,363.0
17,577.1
Source: Data from U.S. Bureau of the Census
Table 8. U.S. Current Account Balances With
Selected U.S. Trading Partners, 2004
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Merchandise
Investment
Net
Current
Services
Country
Trade
Income
Unilateral
Account
Balance b
Balance a
Balance c
Transfers d
Balance
e
All Countries
-665.5
48.4
24.1
-72.9
-665.9
Mexico
-46.4
5.6
1.0
-7.7
-47.5
Canada
-68.5
9.3
15.4
-0.2
-44.0
Japan
-77.2
12.9
-27.6
0.1
-91.8
European Union
-111.3
6.9
-11.5
0.4
-115.4
Other Asia/Africa
-309.8
10.4
9.7
-34.2
-324.0
Latin America
-84.0
3.8
11.7
-28.6
-97.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, April 2005.
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private services,
and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ as a result of rounding errors.
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Table 9. U.S. Trade in Advanced Technology Products
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Year
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade Balance
1990
93.4
59.3
34.1
1991
101.6
63.3
38.3
1992
107.1
71.9
35.2
1993
108.4
81.2
27.2
1994
120.7
98.1
22.6
1995
138.4
124.8
13.6
1996
154.9
130.4
24.5
1997
179.5
147.3
32.2
1998
186.4
156.8
29.6
1999
200.3
181.2
19.1
2000
227.4
222.1
5.3
2001
200.1
195.3
4.8
2002
178.6
195.2
-16.6
2003
180.2
207.0
-26.8
2004
201.5
238.5
-37.0
April 2005
18.7
21.0
-2.2
May 2005
17.1
21.0
-3.8
June 2005
19.2
22.9
-3.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
Includes about 500 of some 22,000 commodity classification codes that meet the following criteria: (1)
contains products whose technology is from a recognized high technology field (e.g., biotechnology), (2)
represent leading edge technology in that field, and (3) constitute a significant part of all items covered in the
selected classification code.
Table 10. U.S. Trade in Passenger Automobiles by
Selected Countries, 2004
(millions of U.S. dollars)
Trading Partner
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade Balance
Total World
24,420
122,372
-97,952
Canada
10,370
35,941
-25,571
Germany
3,996
20,346
-16,350
Korea
48
10,040
-9,992
Japan
485
32,228
-31,743
Mexico
3,099
11,167
-8,068
United Kingdom
871
4,846
-3,975
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
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Table 11. U.S. Imports of Crude Oil by Selected Countries, 2004
(Quantity and Customs Value)
Quantity
Customs Value
Country
(Thousand barrels)
($million)
Total World
3,820,527
131,700
OPEC Total
1,924,242
67,316
Saudi Arabia
551,504
19,374
Venezuela
557,435
17,758
Nigeria
386,773
15,122
Kuwait
86,751
2,904
Algeria
78,958
3,233
Other OPEC
262,821
8,925
Non-OPEC Total
1,896,285
64,384
Canada
576,795
18,782
Mexico
563,947
17,893
Angola
116,943
4,300
Ecuador
85,357
2,835
Norway
73,504
2,735
Gabon
64,961
2,421
Other Non-OPEC
414,778
15,418
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
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