{ "id": "IN10562", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10562", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 455590, "date": "2016-09-06", "retrieved": "2017-04-21T15:15:31.087567", "title": "Leadership Succession in Uzbekistan", "summary": "Background\nOn August 28, 2016, Uzbekistan announced its President, Islam Karimov, had been hospitalized, but officials gave few details about his condition. On September 2 after a week of conflicting reports, the government confirmed that Karimov had died and the following day a funeral was held in his hometown of Samarkand.\nThe 78-year-old Karimov served as Uzbekistan\u2019s only President from the time of its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. Prior to his death, his deteriorating health caused observers to speculate about the insular country\u2019s process for choosing a new leader. Family relationships and clan dynamics play a significant role in the country\u2019s political structure. A disputed succession for the powerful office of President could affect the domestic stability of Uzbekistan and have broader implications for U.S. interests throughout the region.\nPolitics in Uzbekistan\nUzbekistan has a highly authoritarian and personality-driven political system. Although the country has both presidential and parliamentary elections, they are not generally considered free or fair. Uzbekistan has no significant opposition groups, and fundamental political freedoms such as the right of assembly, expression, and free association are strictly curtailed.\nUzbekistan\u2019s clan rivalries are central to the country\u2019s political dynamics. Some observers have suggested that in recent years, a power struggle has been playing out between a clan centered on the capital, Tashkent, and the Samarkand clan, which dominates the west of the country. Other observers have suggested that control over powerful institutions such as the military and security services is more critical in determining the outcome of a succession struggle.\nSuccession Process\nAn actual, long-term succession decision is likely to take place via private, informal processes. On September 8, the parliament appointed Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev as acting president. In accordance with Article 96 of Uzbekistan\u2019s constitution, it is expected that general elections will be held within three months.\nPossible Successors\nPotential successors include at least four key figures, including Prime Minister Mirziyaev, Finance Minister Rustam Azimov, National Security Service Chief Rustam Inoyatov, and President Karimov\u2019s daughter Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva.\nPrime Minister\nShavkat Mirziyaev has served as Prime Minister since 2003, and he was appointed acting president a few days after Karimov\u2019s funeral. He is said by some analysts to be relatively well-disposed toward Russia, which could suggest a possible departure from Karimov\u2019s policies that reduced Russian influence in Uzbekistan.\nFinance Minister\nRustam Azimov has held economic and finance-related positions for many years and is thought of as relatively technocratic. He currently works as Uzbekistan governor for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, one of the two main regional multilateral development banks, and he may be the most economically liberal of the potential successors.\nSecurity Chief\nRustam Inoyatov is head of the National Security Service (SNB). He is suspected of being behind efforts to undermine Karimov\u2019s eldest daughter Gulnara, once seen as a possible successor (see below). Some sources suggest that he is unlikely to become president himself, but any successor will need Inoyatov\u2019s support\u2014he has been referred to by news outlets as a \u201ckingmaker.\u201d\nKarimov Daughters\nKarimov has no sons. Some observers consider President Karimov\u2019s younger daughter Lola to be a possible successor. She currently manages two children\u2019s charity organizations and serves as Uzbekistan\u2019s ambassador to UNESCO. Until 2013, Karimov\u2019s elder daughter Gulnara was considered a possible successor, despite reports of her deep unpopularity. After being placed under house arrest in connection with a far-reaching telecommunications industry corruption scandal, she is no longer considered a viable candidate. Lola said in a 2013 media interview that she had not spoken to her sister in over a decade. Gulnara reportedly did not attend her father\u2019s funeral.\nQuestions for Congress\nTerrorism and Regional Stability\nThe State Department notes that given its geographic location and large population, Uzbekistan plays an important role in U.S. efforts to promote regional economic integration and stability. Uzbekistan officials have expressed concern about the growth of extremism within its borders and in the region.\nSecurity Assistance\nIn January 2015, Uzbekistan received over 300 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles through the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program to support the country\u2019s counterterrorism and counternarcotics efforts. Additionally, for FY2015 the State Department reported $507,000 spent on International Military Education and Training (IMET), $740,000 spent on International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE), and $540,000 spent on Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, and Related Programs (NADR).\nIn recent years, Congress has modified the conditions on U.S. State Department security assistance to Uzbekistan. Omnibus Appropriations for FY2003 (P.L. 108-7) required that the Secretary of State certify that Uzbekistan was making substantial progress in meeting commitments to promote democracy and respect human rights, though the legislation allowed for a waiver on national security grounds. Subsequent appropriations legislation retained these conditions, with some modifications, through FY2015 (P.L. 113-235). The only specific condition related to the provision of aid to Uzbekistan in the FY2016 appropriations legislation is a notification requirement (P.L. 114-113).\nAdditional Concerns\nCongress may also consider the following:\nWhat will be the implications of a new national leader (or potentially protracted succession crisis) for U.S. counterterrorism (CT) and countering violent extremism (CVE) cooperation with Uzbekistan, including along Uzbekistan\u2019s border with Afghanistan?\nHow will Russian and Chinese influence in the region change with new leadership or a succession crisis? What are the implications for U.S. interests and policy?\nHow will succession affect prospects for greater economic liberalization? Does this carry implications for U.S. involvement in trade, investment, and regional economic integration?", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10562", "sha1": "21f88ed9aa961df9ff3b18badbce2e0f92f35e05", "filename": "files/20160906_IN10562_21f88ed9aa961df9ff3b18badbce2e0f92f35e05.html", "images": null } ], "topics": [] } ], "topics": [ "Appropriations", "CRS Insights", "Intelligence and National Security", "National Defense" ] }