{ "id": "IN10780", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10780", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 465539, "date": "2017-09-18", "retrieved": "2019-05-03T16:20:15.191811", "title": "Election in Germany", "summary": "Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking a fourth term in Germany\u2019s parliamentary election scheduled for September 24, 2017. Merkel has led Europe\u2019s largest and most prosperous country for 12 years and is widely viewed as the most influential political leader in Europe. Opinion polls suggest she will be reelected comfortably.\nMerkel\u2019s campaign has stressed the value of continuity and predictability during a time of flux in Europe and beyond. While presiding over a period of economic prosperity in Germany, Merkel has been confronted with crises such as significant migration and refugee flows, Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Greek debt crisis, the United Kingdom\u2019s decision to leave the European Union (EU), and a rise in terrorism. \nWithin Germany, the arrival of approximately 1.1 million refugees and migrants in 2015 created considerable pressure for Merkel. Perhaps most notable has been the rise of an anti-immigrant party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is poised to become the first far-right party represented in Germany\u2019s federal parliament since World War II. Nevertheless, more than 60% of German voters express support for Merkel\u2019s leadership and moderate sensibilities. \nRegardless of the outcome, analysts do not expect a significant shift in Germany\u2019s foreign policy. The leading parties are generally supportive of Merkel\u2019s policies on the EU, NATO, and international cooperation. Despite near universal criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump across Germany\u2019s political spectrum, the major political parties emphasize the need to maintain a strong, cooperative relationship with the United States. \nMain Political Parties and Key Election Issues\nPolls indicate that the following six political parties will surpass the 5% vote threshold required for entry into the lower house of the German parliament, the Bundestag:\nChristian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), 36%. Chancellor Merkel\u2019s center-right political group of the CDU and its Bavarian sister-party, the CSU.\nSocial Democratic Party (SPD), 22%. Center-left party led by former president of the European Parliament Martin Schulz.\nAlternative for Germany (AfD), 11%. Far-right, anti-immigrant party.\nThe Left, 10%. Far-left party that is an outgrowth of East Germany\u2019s former ruling communist party.\nThe Free Democratic Party (FDP), 9%. Economically and socially liberal party that has traditionally been a coalition partner of the CDU/CSU. \nThe Greens, 8%. Left-leaning party, with a focus on environmental issues.\nIn the eyes of most observers, the 2017 campaign\u2014dubbed the \u201csleep campaign\u201d\u2014has been most notable for its lack of contentiousness. Analysts attribute this to Germany\u2019s relatively strong economic standing and broad voter support of Merkel\u2019s leadership. Despite the emergence of the AfD, Merkel has largely subdued criticism of her response to the refugee and migration crisis with policies focused on reducing refugee and migration flows (in part through a controversial EU deal with Turkey) and hastening the return of failed asylum seekers. The number of new arrivals to Germany has dropped substantially since 2015.\nSome analysts observe that during Merkel\u2019s tenure, Germany\u2019s two main parties\u2014the CDU/CSU and the SPD\u2014have increasingly converged around the political center, emboldening smaller parties on the left and right. The entry into parliament of the AfD, for example, could make coalition building more challenging and heighten political instability, a trend also observed in some other European countries. On the other hand, the German electorate is viewed as one of Europe\u2019s most politically moderate.\nPossible Electoral Outcomes\nIn Germany, as in other parliamentary democracies, the head of government is elected by the parliament. Due to the number of parties represented in parliament, leading parties rarely enjoy an absolute majority, so a chancellor is almost always elected by two or more parties that then form a governing coalition. Merkel has spent two terms governing in a so-called \u201cgrand coalition\u201d together with her party\u2019s long-time adversary, the SPD (2005-2009 and 2013-2017), and one term governing with the FDP (2009-2013). \nPolls suggest that the combined support for the CDU/CSU and its traditional coalition partner, the FDP, will not exceed 50%. Analysts therefore expect Merkel to seek one of two possible governing arrangements: another \u201cgrand coalition\u201d with the SPD, or a coalition of three parties\u2014the CDU/CSU, the FDP, and the Greens. \nMany observers believe Merkel\u2019s preference to be a \u201cgrand coalition,\u201d both due to her past success governing with the SPD and her centrist preferences. However, some leading voices in the SPD say they oppose joining another CDU/CSU-led government, arguing that the arrangement has caused the SPD to stray from its core values.\nPostwar Germany has never been governed by a coalition of three parties. Many observers view the CDU/CSU and the Greens as unlikely partners, although they have coalesced at the state level. Some analysts also maintain that the famously cautious Merkel could view the unprecedented arrangement as too risky. \nImplications for the United States\nAlthough Chancellor Merkel is considered a steadfast supporter of strong U.S.-German ties, the bilateral relationship has been strained since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump. The two leaders have openly disagreed on several key issues, including climate change, free trade, and migration. In response to President Trump\u2019s past criticisms of NATO and the EU, Merkel has stressed her belief that U.S.-German relations should continue to be based on a strong mutual commitment to these pillars of the multilateral architecture developed after World War II. \nDuring the campaign, Merkel garnered attention for declaring that the days when Europe could rely on others \u201cwere over to a certain extent,\u201d a comment widely viewed as questioning the reliability of the United States. However, Merkel and Trump have both stressed their commitment to strong bilateral cooperation on key international concerns, such as the fight against the Islamic State and confronting Russian aggression.\nMerkel also agrees with President Trump that NATO\u2019s European members should increase defense spending to ensure more equitable burden-sharing. Merkel has committed to raising Germany\u2019s defense spending\u2014currently at about 1.2% of GDP\u2014to 2% of GDP by 2024, as agreed by NATO. Her main challenger, Schulz, has argued against such an increase on the grounds that it could lead to a \u201cnew arms race.\u201d", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10780", "sha1": "0c1ac7551418c580dddf2d9a80bf5c06c2259ea0", "filename": "files/20170918_IN10780_0c1ac7551418c580dddf2d9a80bf5c06c2259ea0.html", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights" ] }