{ "id": "IN10819", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10819", "active": true, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 575602, "date": "2017-11-16", "retrieved": "2017-11-28T14:38:52.131754", "title": "Zimbabwe: A Military-Compelled Transition?", "summary": "Between November 14 and 15, members of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF) seized control of the state-owned Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and secured other key political and military facilities, in an action seen by some observers as a coup d\u2019\u00e9tat. The ultimate objective and possible trajectory of their intervention remain unclear, but the move appears to have been sparked by a succession struggle within the ruling Zimbabwe National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). \nSpecific triggers were President Robert Mugabe\u2019s November 6 dismissal of one of Zimbabwe\u2019s two vice presidents, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and a purge of Mnangagwa\u2019s supporters. These actions followed signs that Mugabe, age 93, was moving to make Grace Mugabe, his politically ambitious wife, a vice president. This would likely have positioned her to succeed him as president and sidelined her main rival, Mnangagwa, an ex-intelligence chief and Defense Minister. Top security force leaders, many reported allies of Mnangagwa\u2014and, like him, veterans of Zimbabwe\u2019s war of independence, unlike Grace Mugabe\u2014apparently viewed these prospective changes as anathema.\nThe situation in Zimbabwe remains fluid, and what outcomes may result from the military\u2019s intervention are unknown. The ZDF\u2019s action holds the potential to bring about a political transition reversing a years-long trend of undemocratic governance, human rights abuses, and a badly ailing economy. Alternately, it could possibly worsen the security and economic situations. How the United States\u2014and other external actors\u2014might affect the outcome remains to be seen. Talks involving regional actors, the military, Robert Mugabe, and others are under way, but their nature and goals are currently unclear.\nIntervention\nThe military\u2019s intervention was preceded by an explicit warning on November 13 by ZDF commander Constantino Chiwenga. He demanded an end to the intra-party purge and stated that regarding \u201cmatters of protecting our revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in.\u201d \nThe Mugabe administration responded by labeling Chiwenga\u2019s statement \u201ctreasonable,\u201d and the next day the military acted. In a live TV statement at dawn on November 15, a military spokesman asserted that the ZDF was acting to \u201cpacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation ... which if not addressed may result in violent conflict.\u201d He averred that the military was not taking over the government and anticipated a \u201creturn to normalcy\u201d after \u201cwe have accomplished our mission.\u201d He said the ZDF was \u201ctargeting criminals around\u201d President Mugabe \u201cwho are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering ... in order to bring them to justice.\u201d The statement also warned other Zimbabwean security services not to resist the military\u2019s actions. \u201cCriminals\u201d is a likely reference to allies of Grace Mugabe, several of whom have reportedly been arrested. While the statement said that the security of the president and his family was guaranteed, the president is reportedly under house arrest. His wife\u2019s whereabouts remain uncertain. \n/\nMnangagwa\u2019s Ouster\nMnangagwa\u2019s removal represented a stunning turnaround for a long-time regime insider, but followed a long-standing pattern in which Mugabe, as head of ZANU-PF and the executive branch, has controlled elites\u2019 elevation to and demotion from key party and state posts. Notably, demotion targets have been those appearing to challenge his leadership or publicly suggest the possibility of a post-Mugabe transition. Mnangagwa himself became vice president in 2014 after his predecessor, opposition figure and ex-ZANU-PF loyalist Joice Mujuru, faced a similar ousting.\nMnangagwa\u2019s dismissal was portended by a series of increasingly personalized political attacks on him by Grace Mugabe. She also claimed that Mnangagwa\u2019s allies had planned a coup d\u2019\u00e9tat, and denied reports that Mnangagwa had been targeted in a poisoning plot involving ice cream made by her firm. An official statement explaining Mnangagwa\u2019s ouster accused him of \u201cdisloyalty, disrespect, deceitfulness and unreliability.\u201d The president, who had stated his willingness to sack Mnangagwa days earlier, also stripped Mnangagwa of his role as Justice Minister on October 10, 2017. He also reassigned or dismissed several other key ministers, some putative Mnangagwa allies, notably then-Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa, who became head of a newly created cyber security ministry.\nZANU-PF also expelled Mnangagwa from the party. He then fled to South Africa on November 8 after reported death threats. Following these events, a key group of veterans publicly repudiated President Mugabe. Mnangagwa, meanwhile pledged to challenge Robert Mugabe\u2019s leadership.\n\nSuccession Politics\nMnangagwa\u2019s removal generated intense political controversy, as it appeared to presage Grace Mugabe\u2019s possible ascendance to the co-vice-presidency of ZANU-PF during a late-2017 party congress, and then to the national vice presidency. This might have placed Grace Mugabe, her husband\u2019s former secretary, in pole position to temporarily succeed him, were he to resign or die while in office, and then possibly to consolidate power and become president for the longer-term. \nIt would also have signaled a generational transition of power, from a ZANU-PF dominated by independence war veterans and a wing of the party grouped around Mnangagwa and allies in the security services\u2014some of whom oppose any president lacking independence war credentials\u2014to a cohort of politicians who came of age after independence in 1980. This cohort includes Grace Mugabe and is grouped together as a faction known as \u201cGeneration 40.\u201d \nDespite support from many in this group, her relative backing within ZANU-PF more broadly absent her husband was difficult to gauge. Labeled by critics as \u201cGucci Grace\u201d due to her reported penchant for luxury goods, she has been accused of abusive and \u201copportunistic\u201d behavior. She has also repeatedly lashed out at perceived enemies since entering politics in 2014, including powerful party figures, and disparaged veterans, historically a core ZANU-PF constituency.\nProspects\nThe ZDF intervention is almost certain to fundamentally reshape the political landscape. Whether the military may, however, simply attempt to protect its interests and those of the historically hardline ZANU-PF wing of the party with which it is allied\u2014or whether it facilitates a governance agenda centered on \u201cinvestment, development and prosperity\u201d (as its intervention statement suggested)\u2014remains to be seen. An alternative option could be a government of national unity akin to one that existed between 2009 and 2013. It ended after procedurally flawed elections in 2013.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10819", "sha1": "33de6a7a65914985d019801017d362fbc3c4cce1", "filename": "files/20171116_IN10819_33de6a7a65914985d019801017d362fbc3c4cce1.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN10819_files&id=/0.png": "files/20171116_IN10819_images_8b009b0f9d5c24e87c3076e82fe5e260959c323f.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10819", "sha1": "e2d70e3649fdfabdee7b09c045b1d1082fee3813", "filename": "files/20171116_IN10819_e2d70e3649fdfabdee7b09c045b1d1082fee3813.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4879, "name": "Sub-Saharan Africa" } ] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights" ] }