{ "id": "IN10905", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10905", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 581798, "date": "2018-06-07", "retrieved": "2018-09-13T22:58:40.022630", "title": "Iraq\u2019s 2018 Elections", "summary": "Iraqis are voting in national, regional, and provincial elections in 2018 as they seek to consolidate the country\u2019s military victory over the Islamic State, rebuild shattered communities, and improve government performance. On May 12, Iraqi voters went to the polls to choose national legislators for four-year terms in the 329-seat Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq\u2019s unicameral legislature. Turnout was lower in the 2018 COR election than in past national elections, but the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has stated that it was \u201clargely peaceful and orderly\u201d and has called on election officials \u201cto act expeditiously in order to seriously address all complaints.\u201d \nIrregularities are under investigation, and, in June, authorities suspended the members of the Independent High Electoral Commission and directed the judiciary to preside over a manual recount. Results from overseas and from some internally displaced persons have now been cancelled. Prior to these developments, most leading factions and political figures had accepted the initial reported results and had begun negotiations aimed at choosing a prime minister and forming a new cabinet. Most analysts do not expect the pending investigations and recount to substantially change the outcome.\nIraq\u2019s Electoral System and Government Formation\nVoters in Iraq\u2019s 18 governorates selected their preferred political list and/or candidate in the May 2018 COR election, with seats awarded proportionally on a complex formula basis. Some Iraqis have criticized the electoral formula as biased toward larger parties. The COR election results are informing the selection of a new prime minister and cabinet, with nominees determined through coalition negotiations among the various parties, lists, and candidates. One quarter of the COR seats are reserved for women and nine seats are reserved for representatives of minority groups, including Christians and Yazidis.\nAfter results are finalized, the newly constituted COR is required within 15 days to choose a speaker and two deputies by a majority of its members (165 votes). Within 30 days from the date of the first session of the new COR, members are to choose a new national president by a two-thirds majority (220 votes). Within 15 days of selection by the COR, the new president is to direct the prime minister-designate nominee of the largest negotiated COR bloc to form a government. Within 30 days of being designated, the designee must present a cabinet platform and slate of ministers for COR confirmation by majority vote.\nCampaign and Results \nMost candidates and coalitions adopted campaign rhetoric reflecting the anticorruption, pansectarian, and proreform aspirations of popular protest movements, although coalition platforms and mobilization strategies were defined by a mix of new appeals and established methods. Overall, turnout declined considerably from levels in 2005, 2010, and 2014, with 44.5% of more than 23 million registered Iraqi voters participating. Analysts attribute the decline to abstentions and an organized boycott, voter disillusion and fatigue, the unpopularity of incumbents and establishment candidates, technical and administrative failures, and continuing internal displacement. Voters did not choose candidates strictly on ethnic or sectarian lines and demonstrated a range of candidate and list preferences within communal groups. \nThe Sa\u2019irun (On the March) coalition led by populist Shia cleric and longtime U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr\u2019s Istiqama (Integrity) list placed first, followed by the predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi al Ameri of the Badr Organization. Sa\u2019irun leveraged a unique slate of new candidates to distinguish itself and campaigned on an anticorruption and service delivery platform. Fatah includes several individuals formerly associated with the mostly Shia Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) militias that helped fight the Islamic State, including figures and movements with ties to Iran. Prime Minister Haider al Abadi is seeking a second term, but his Nasr (Victory) coalition underperformed to place third in the election, and he will depend on support from Shia rivals if he is to remain in office. \nFormer prime minister Nouri al Maliki\u2019s State of Law coalition, Ammar al Hakim\u2019s Hikma (Wisdom) list, and Iyad Allawi\u2019s Wataniya (National) list also won significant blocs of seats. Among Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won the most seats, while smaller Kurdish opposition lists have joined together to condemn alleged vote tampering and to demand cancellation of the results.\nTable 1. Iraq\u2019s 2018 National Legislative Election\nSeats won by Coalition/Party\nCoalition/Party\nSeats Won\n\nSa'irun\n54\n\nFatah\n47\n\nNasr\n42\n\nKurdistan Democratic Party\n25\n\nState of Law\n25\n\nWataniya\n21\n\nHikma\n19\n\nPatriotic Union of Kurdistan\n18\n\nQarar\n14\n\nOthers\n64\n\nSource: Iraq Independent High Electoral Commission.\nNext Steps and Outlook\nIraqi analysts note that election results are one reference point for post-election government formation negotiations, and underscore that vote totals may not directly determine the leadership or the final makeup of Iraq\u2019s next government. Analysts expect negotiations to remain fluid and somewhat opaque. Some scenarios project a status quo result based on an expansive but fragile coalition government, while others consider alternate coalitions that could include or exclude different parties. Observers have identified some possible candidates for prime minister, but the ordered recount appears likely to delay the finalization of results and could influence negotiations. Prime Minister Abadi could return under some scenarios, but the makeup of the governing coalition will determine its viability and freedom of action on controversial issues.\nPrime Minister Abadi has expressed his desire to see U.S. and other international military support for Iraq\u2019s security forces continue. Sa\u2019irun leader Muqtada al Sadr remains critical of U.S. policy toward Iraq and the broader Middle East, but has not called for the immediate withdrawal of foreign forces. It remains to be seen whether any coalition government featuring Sadr\u2019s movement and/or members of the Fatah or State of Law coalitions might seek to substantially revise or reverse current patterns of U.S.-Iraq cooperation. Senior officials from Iran and the United States have visited Iraq in the wake of the election and consulted with leading political figures.\nThe Kurdistan Regional Government has proposed holding long-delayed legislative and executive elections on September 30, with nationwide provincial council elections set for December.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10905", "sha1": "804581ad41fbe70763df58ea40cccadcc0bc849f", "filename": "files/20180607_IN10905_804581ad41fbe70763df58ea40cccadcc0bc849f.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10905", "sha1": "18ea1c019a097ee2c335fa90e1c9c8350f9769f4", "filename": "files/20180607_IN10905_18ea1c019a097ee2c335fa90e1c9c8350f9769f4.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 581497, "date": "2018-05-29", "retrieved": "2018-05-31T14:52:26.338230", "title": "Iraq\u2019s 2018 Elections", "summary": "Iraqis are voting in national, regional, and provincial elections in 2018 as they seek to consolidate the country\u2019s military victory over the Islamic State, rebuild shattered communities, and improve government performance. On May 12, Iraqi voters went to the polls to choose national legislators for four-year terms in the 329-seat Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq\u2019s unicameral legislature. \nTurnout was lower in the 2018 COR election than in past national elections, but the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has stated that it was \u201clargely peaceful and orderly\u201d and has called on election officials \u201cto act expeditiously in order to seriously address all complaints.\u201d Irregularities are under investigation, while most of the leading factions and figures have accepted the results and are now engaged in negotiations aimed at choosing a prime minister and forming a new cabinet. \nIraq\u2019s Electoral System and Government Formation\nVoters in Iraq\u2019s 18 governorates selected their preferred political list and/or candidate in the May 2018 COR election, with seats awarded proportionally on a complex formula basis. Some Iraqis have criticized the electoral formula as biased toward larger parties. The COR election results are informing the selection of a new prime minister and cabinet, with nominees determined through coalition negotiations among the various parties, lists, and candidates. One quarter of the COR seats are reserved for women and nine seats are reserved for representatives of minority groups, including Christians and Yazidis.\nAfter results are finalized, the newly constituted COR is required within 15 days to choose a speaker and two deputies by a majority of its members (165 votes). Within 30 days from the date of the first session of the new COR, members are to choose a new national president by a two-thirds majority (220 votes). Within 15 days of selection by the COR, the new president is to direct the prime minister-designate nominee of the largest negotiated COR bloc to form a government. Within 30 days of being designated, the designee must present a cabinet platform and slate of ministers for COR confirmation by majority vote.\nCampaign and Results \nMost candidates and coalitions adopted campaign rhetoric reflecting the anticorruption, pan-sectarian, and pro-reform aspirations of popular protest movements, although coalition platforms and mobilization strategies were defined by a mix of new appeals and established methods. Overall, turnout declined considerably from levels in 2005, 2010, and 2014, with 44.5% of more than 23 million registered Iraqi voters participating. Analysts attribute the decline to abstentions and an organized boycott, voter disillusion and fatigue, the unpopularity of incumbents and establishment candidates, technical and administrative failures, and continuing internal displacement. Voters did not choose candidates strictly on ethnic or sectarian lines and demonstrated a range of candidate and list preferences within communal groups. \nThe Sa\u2019irun (On the March) coalition led by populist Shia cleric and longtime U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr\u2019s Istiqama (Integrity) list placed first, followed by the predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi al Ameri of the Badr Organization. Sa\u2019irun leveraged a unique slate of new candidates to distinguish itself and campaigned on an anticorruption and service delivery platform. Fatah includes several individuals formerly associated with the mostly Shia Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) militias that helped fight the Islamic State, including figures and movements with ties to Iran. Prime Minister Haider al Abadi is seeking a second term, but his Nasr (Victory) coalition underperformed to place third in the election, and he will depend on support from Shia rivals if he is to remain in office. Abadi\u2019s inclusive, Shia-led list earned the most votes in predominantly Sunni Ninewa governorate, home to the city of Mosul, but fell short in Baghdad and other areas. \nFormer prime minister Nouri al Maliki\u2019s State of Law coalition, Ammar al Hakim\u2019s Hikma (Wisdom) list, and Iyad Allawi\u2019s Wataniya (National) list also won significant blocs of seats. Among Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won the most seats, while smaller Kurdish opposition lists have joined together to condemn alleged vote tampering and to demand cancellation of the results.\nTable 1. Iraq\u2019s 2018 National Legislative Election\nSeats won by Coalition/Party\nCoalition/Party\nSeats Won\n\nSa'irun\n54\n\nFatah\n47\n\nNasr\n42\n\nKurdistan Democratic Party\n25\n\nState of Law\n25\n\nWataniya\n21\n\nHikma\n19\n\nPatriotic Union of Kurdistan\n18\n\nQarar\n14\n\nOthers\n64\n\nSource: Iraq Independent High Electoral Commission.\nNext Steps and Outlook\nIraqi analysts note that election results are one reference point for post-election government formation negotiations, and underscore that vote totals may not directly determine the leadership or the final makeup of Iraq\u2019s next government. Electoral lists may combine or fracture during negotiations aimed at creating blocs in the COR. Analysts expect negotiations to remain fluid and somewhat opaque. Some scenarios project a status quo result based on an expansive but fragile coalition government, while others consider alternate coalitions that could include or exclude different parties. Observers have identified some possible candidates for prime minister, but negotiations could last for weeks or longer. Prime Minister Abadi could return under some scenarios, but the makeup of the governing coalition will determine its viability and freedom of action on controversial issues.\nPrime Minister Abadi has expressed his desire to see U.S. and other international military support for Iraq\u2019s security forces continue. Sa\u2019irun leader Muqtada al Sadr remains critical of U.S. policy toward Iraq and the broader Middle East, but has not called for the immediate withdrawal of foreign forces. It remains to be seen whether any coalition government featuring Sadr\u2019s movement and/or members of the Fatah or State of Law coalitions might seek to substantially revise or reverse current patterns of U.S.-Iraq cooperation. Senior officials from Iran and the United States have visited Iraq in the wake of the election and consulted with leading political figures.\nThe Kurdistan Regional Government has proposed holding long-delayed legislative and executive elections on September 30, with nationwide provincial council elections set for December.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10905", "sha1": "2e8905c6d9c3c7e9bf77c2f9c78e8ecfd12eb8c5", "filename": "files/20180529_IN10905_2e8905c6d9c3c7e9bf77c2f9c78e8ecfd12eb8c5.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10905", "sha1": "dbed2e3c343c03b051ac7b6e7b95ac98d1266320", "filename": "files/20180529_IN10905_dbed2e3c343c03b051ac7b6e7b95ac98d1266320.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 581183, "date": "2018-05-17", "retrieved": "2018-05-22T13:12:23.028251", "title": "Iraq\u2019s 2018 Elections", "summary": "Iraqis are voting in national, regional, and provincial elections in 2018 as they seek to consolidate the country\u2019s military victory over the forces of the Islamic State, rebuild shattered communities, and improve government performance. On May 12, Iraqi voters went to the polls to choose national legislators for four-year terms in the 329-seat Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq\u2019s unicameral legislature. The Kurdistan Regional Government has proposed holding long-delayed legislative and executive elections on September 30, with nationwide provincial council elections set for December. Observers have been surprised by a lower than expected voter turnout and by preliminary results showing that Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr\u2019s list appears set to win the most seats overall. \nIraq\u2019s Electoral System\nVoters in Iraq\u2019s 18 governorates selected their preferred political list and/or candidate in the May 2018 COR election, with seats awarded proportionally on a complex formula basis. Some Iraqis have criticized the electoral formula as biased toward larger parties. Once ratified, the COR election results will inform the selection of a new prime minister and cabinet, with nominees determined through coalition negotiations among the various parties, lists, and candidates. One quarter of the COR seats are reserved for women and nine seats are reserved for representatives of minority groups, including Christians and Yazidis.\nPreliminary Results\nMost candidates and coalitions adopted campaign rhetoric reflecting the anticorruption, pansectarian, and proreform aspirations of popular protest movements, although coalition platforms and mobilization strategies were defined by a mix of new appeals and established methods. Overall, turnout declined considerably from levels in 2005, 2010, and 2014, with 44.5% of more than 23 million registered Iraqi voters participating. Analysts attribute the decline to abstentions and an organized boycott, voter disillusion and fatigue, the unpopularity of incumbents and establishment candidates, technical and administrative failures, and continuing internal displacement. Voters did not choose candidates strictly on ethnic or sectarian lines and demonstrated a range of candidate and list preferences within communal groups. \nPreliminary results show the Sa\u2019irun (On the March) coalition led by Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr\u2019s Istiqama (Integrity) list set to win more than 50 seats and the most overall. Sa\u2019irun leveraged a unique slate of new candidates to distinguish itself and campaigned on an anticorruption and service delivery platform. \nPreliminary results and local press reports differ over whether the next-highest number of seats will go to the Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Badr Organization and former Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) leader Hadi al Ameri or the Nasr (Victory) coalition led by Prime Minister Haider al Abadi. Abadi\u2019s inclusive, Shia-led list earned the most votes in predominantly Sunni Ninewa governorate, home to the city of Mosul, but fell short in Baghdad and other areas. The Fatah list includes candidates with ties to Iran who oppose close relations with the United States. \nFormer prime minister Nouri al Maliki\u2019s State of Law coalition, Ammar al Hakim\u2019s Hikma (Wisdom) list, and Iyad Allawi\u2019s Wataniya (National) list also are projected to have 20 or more seats. Among Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won the most seats, while Wataniya and smaller Kurdish opposition lists have joined together to condemn alleged vote tampering and to demand cancellation of the results. \nGovernment Formation and Prominent Issues\nAfter results are finalized, the newly constituted COR is required within 15 days to choose a speaker and two deputies by a majority of its members (165 votes). Within 30 days from the date of result certification, the COR is to choose a new national president by a two-thirds majority (220 votes). Within 15 days of that choice, the new president is to direct the prime minister-designate nominee of the largest negotiated COR bloc to form a government. Within 30 days of being designated, the designee must present a cabinet platform and slate of ministers for COR confirmation by majority vote. \nIraqi analysts note that election results are one reference point for postelection government formation negotiations among Iraq\u2019s political factions, and underscore that vote totals may not directly determine the leadership or the final makeup of Iraq\u2019s next government. Electoral lists may combine or fracture during negotiations aimed at creating blocs in the COR. Analysts are discussing various scenarios and expect negotiations to remain fluid and somewhat opaque. Some scenarios project a status quo result based on an expansive but fragile coalition government, while others consider alternate coalitions that could include or exclude different parties. Observers have identified some possible candidates for prime minister, but negotiations could last for weeks or longer. Prime Minister Abadi could return under some scenarios, but the makeup of the governing coalition will determine its viability and freedom of action on controversial issues.\nThe following issues were relevant in the campaign and are expected to factor into negotiations:\nStabilization and Reconstruction \nSecurity and the Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces\nEconomic Development, Corruption, and Fiscal Policy\nRelations between the National Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government\nOutlook and Implications for the United States\nIraq\u2019s election was carried out without major security disruptions, and most leading factions and figures have made statements accepting the somewhat unexpected result. While exhibiting lower turnout than in the past, Iraq\u2019s 2018 COR election was \u201clargely peaceful and orderly,\u201d and the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq has called on election officials \u201cto act expeditiously in order to seriously address all complaints.\u201d Prime Minister Abadi has expressed his desire to see U.S. and other international military support for Iraq\u2019s security forces continue. Sa\u2019irun leader Muqtada al Sadr remains critical of U.S. policy toward Iraq and the broader Middle East, but has not called for the immediate withdrawal of foreign forces. It remains to be seen whether a coalition government featuring Sadr\u2019s movement and/or members of the Fatah or State of Law coalitions might seek to substantially revise or reverse current patterns of U.S.-Iraq cooperation. Senior officials from Iran and the United States have visited Iraq in the wake of the election and consulted with leading political figures.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10905", "sha1": "880db5df267bb7b7e28a6768558dba9a5ac0a1dc", "filename": "files/20180517_IN10905_880db5df267bb7b7e28a6768558dba9a5ac0a1dc.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10905", "sha1": "fa49dd5bba022549c52a4df24076c0f91967c075", "filename": "files/20180517_IN10905_fa49dd5bba022549c52a4df24076c0f91967c075.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights" ] }