{ "id": "IN10976", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10976", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 595144, "date": "2018-11-16", "retrieved": "2020-01-02T16:16:23.863137", "title": "Brazil\u2019s Presidential Election", "summary": "Brazil\u2014the fifth most populous country and ninth-largest economy in the world\u2014held presidential, legislative, and state elections in October 2018. Antiestablishment sentiment carried the day, as voters elected Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, to the presidency and replaced nearly half of congress. The results could have significant implications for Brazil\u2019s domestic policies as well as its relationship with the United States.\nDomestic Context\nThe 2018 election took place as Brazil was struggling to emerge from a series of domestic crises. The country fell into a deep recession in 2014, due to a decline in global commodity prices and economic mismanagement under the center-left Workers Party (PT) government of President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). The unemployment rate more than doubled as the economy contracted by more than 8% from 2015 to 2016. Although economic growth returned in 2017, conditions remain difficult. Nearly 12% of the population is unemployed, and several million formerly middle-class Brazilians now live in poverty. Budget cuts have exacerbated the situation, limiting Brazilian authorities\u2019 capacity to provide social services and address challenges such as escalating crime and violence.\nBrazil also is contending with the repercussions of massive corruption scandals. Since 2014, investigators have uncovered arrangements throughout the public sector in which businesses provided bribes and illegal campaign donations to politicians in exchange for contracts or other favorable government treatment. The revelations discredited much of Brazil\u2019s political establishment and contributed to the controversial impeachment and removal from office of President Rousseff in August 2016. These repeated political crises have polarized Brazilian society and significantly eroded Brazilians\u2019 faith in democracy.\nPresident Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff, has been extremely unpopular. In October 2018, 89% of Brazilians disapproved of his administration. Temer\u2019s center-right government enacted several major economic reforms, including measures to freeze government spending for 20 years, weaken worker protections, and allow greater private sector participation in Brazil\u2019s oil sector. Those policies were applauded by international investors but had little support among the Brazilian people. Temer\u2019s efforts to shield himself from corruption charges further alienated the population.\nElection Results\nBrazilians\u2019 discontent with the political class manifested itself at the polls. In legislative elections, voters ousted 75% of incumbents running for reelection to the federal senate and 43% of incumbents running for reelection to the chamber of deputies. The new congress will be the most fragmented in Brazilian history, with 30 parties represented in at least one chamber.\nIn the presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing member of congress and former army captain backed by the Social Liberal Party, defeated the PT\u2019s Fernando Haddad 55% to 45% in a second-round runoff. Prior to his presidential campaign, Bolsonaro was considered a fringe figure in the Brazilian congress. He exercised little influence over policy and was best known for his controversial remarks defending the country\u2019s military dictatorship (1964-1985) and expressing prejudice toward marginalized sectors of Brazilian society. Bolsonaro also lacked the finances and party machinery of his principal competitors, and he largely remained off the campaign trail after he was stabbed in an assassination attempt on September 6. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro\u2019s social media-driven campaign and populist law-and-order message quickly attracted a strong base of support. He was able to outflank his opponents by exploiting anti-PT and antiestablishment sentiment and aligning himself with the few institutions that Brazilians still trust: the military and the church. \nPolicy Implications\nPresident-elect Bolsonaro is to be inaugurated to a four-year term on January 1, 2019. His administration could usher in far-reaching changes to Brazil\u2019s economic and foreign policies and potentially could test the strength of the country\u2019s democratic institutions.\nEconomy\nMany economists argue that Brazil\u2019s economic recovery depends on the incoming administration implementing extensive reforms, including measures to reduce the fiscal deficit, simplify the tax system, and liberalize trade flows. Bolsonaro embraced such policies during the campaign but previously had been a strong proponent of economic nationalism. His designated economy minister has indicated the administration\u2019s top priorities will be the enactment of a cost-reducing pension reform and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. Bolsonaro has expressed reservations about both initiatives, however, indicating he favors gradual changes to the pension system and opposes the sale of strategic companies such as the state-owned oil producer, Petrobras. Significant reforms also could run into opposition in Brazil\u2019s congress, where patronage-based parties will continue to hold a crucial bloc of votes. Any deterioration in the Brazilian economy could weaken demand for U.S. exports, which totaled $63.7 billion in 2017.\nInternational Affairs\nPreoccupied with domestic crises, Brazilian leaders have dedicated little attention to foreign affairs over the past five years. The new administration could reassert Brazilian influence abroad, particularly if the domestic situation stabilizes. Although Brazil traditionally has pursued an independent foreign policy, Bolsonaro has called for closer alignment with the United States. During the campaign, he indicated he would follow President Trump\u2019s lead in withdrawing from the Paris agreement on climate change, constraining Chinese trade and investment flows, taking a more confrontational approach toward the Cuban and Venezuelan governments, and moving Brazil\u2019s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Bolsonaro has since backed away from some of those positions in response to domestic and international criticism. The Trump Administration views Bolsonaro as a \u201clikeminded leader,\u201d and President Trump has called for Brazil and the United States to \u201cwork closely together\u201d on trade, defense, and other issues. Nevertheless, trade policy is likely to generate some bilateral tensions, as both leaders are inclined toward protecting domestic producers.\nDemocracy and Human Rights\nMany observers are concerned that Bolsonaro may pose a threat to Brazil\u2019s democratic institutions. During the campaign, he pledged to purge his leftist political opponents from the country, classify land rights activists as terrorists, and give police greater freedom to kill suspected criminals. He also regularly attacked the press while surrounding himself with retired generals, several of whom are expected to serve in his Cabinet. Since his election, Bolsonaro has vowed to defend democracy and uphold the constitution. Those commitments could be put to the test, however, once Bolsonaro\u2019s agenda faces resistance from civil society or other branches of government.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10976", "sha1": "2deef12f132b1f52d006063a5eb6e3137937f7fe", "filename": "files/20181116_IN10976_2deef12f132b1f52d006063a5eb6e3137937f7fe.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10976", "sha1": "ea97f98873b1a686d4034635ff1ac2dc50eee684", "filename": "files/20181116_IN10976_ea97f98873b1a686d4034635ff1ac2dc50eee684.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4847, "name": "Latin America, Caribbean, & Canada" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 586356, "date": "2018-10-16", "retrieved": "2018-10-17T13:12:54.727442", "title": "Brazil\u2019s Presidential Election", "summary": "Brazil\u2014the fifth most populous country and ninth-largest economy in the world\u2014held general elections on October 7, 2018. Antiestablishment sentiment carried the day, as Brazilians replaced almost half of their congressional representatives and nearly elected a right-wing populist to the presidency. A presidential runoff election, scheduled for October 28, will have significant implications for the economic and foreign policies of this U.S. \u201cstrategic partner.\u201d \nDomestic Context\nOver the past several years, Brazil has struggled to emerge from a series of domestic crises. The country fell into a deep recession in 2014, due to a decline in global commodity prices and economic mismanagement under the center-left Workers Party (PT) government of President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). The unemployment rate more than doubled as real gross domestic product contracted by more than 8% from 2015 to 2016. Although economic growth returned in 2017, conditions remain difficult. More than 12% of the population is unemployed, and several million formerly middle-class Brazilians now live in poverty. Budget cuts have exacerbated the situation, limiting the capacity of Brazilian authorities to provide social services and address challenges such as escalating crime and violence.\nBrazil also is contending with the repercussions of massive corruption scandals. Since 2014, investigators have uncovered arrangements throughout the public sector in which businesses provided bribes and illegal campaign donations to politicians in exchange for contracts or other favorable government treatment. The revelations discredited much of Brazil\u2019s political establishment and contributed to the controversial impeachment and removal from office of President Rousseff in August 2016. These repeated political crises have polarized Brazilian society and significantly eroded Brazilians\u2019 faith in democracy.\nPresident Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff, is deeply unpopular. His center-right government has enacted several major economic reforms, including measures to freeze government spending for 20 years, weaken worker protections, and allow greater private sector participation in Brazil\u2019s oil sector. Temer also has worked with the Brazilian congress to shield himself from corruption charges. Although international investors have applauded Temer\u2019s economic policies, 89% of Brazilians disapprove of his administration.\nElection Results\nThe October 7 elections demonstrated widespread dissatisfaction with Brazil\u2019s political class. Voters ousted 75% of incumbents running for reelection to the federal senate and 43% of incumbents running for reelection to the chamber of deputies. Both houses of congress also grew more fragmented as small- and mid-sized parties won seats formerly held by the country\u2019s principal governing parties.\nIn the presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing congressman and former army captain backed by the Social Liberal Party, won 46% of the vote, falling just short of the absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff. He has served in Brazil\u2019s lower house since 1991 but is running as a political outsider. Bolsonaro is a longtime defender of the country\u2019s military dictatorship (1964-1985), and his running mate\u2014a retired army general\u2014has suggested the armed forces could intervene if the political system is unable to address corruption or lawlessness. In recent months, Bolsonaro has asserted that police officers should be free to kill suspected criminals and that land rights activists should be considered terrorists. Although his law-and-order message appeals to many Brazilians fed up with crime and corruption, others view him as a threat to democracy and human rights. On September 6, Bolsonaro was stabbed at a political rally in an apparent assassination attempt. He remained hospitalized until September 29 and did not return to the campaign trail until October 12.\nBolsonaro will face the PT\u2019s Fernando Haddad, who finished second with 29% of the valid vote. Haddad is a former education minister (2005-2012) and mayor of S\u00e3o Paulo (2013-2016). He did not formally enter the presidential race until mid-September, when electoral authorities ruled former President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (2003-2010)\u2014who is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption\u2014ineligible to run. Lula remains popular among many Brazilians whose standard of living improved significantly during his tenure, and his support was crucial in helping Haddad advance to the runoff. Anti-Lula and anti-PT sentiment is also widespread, however, since many Brazilians blame the former president and his party for the country\u2019s recent economic and political crises. Haddad has called on the country\u2019s \u201cdemocratic forces\u201d to unite against Bolsonaro for the runoff election, but most centrist and center-right parties have opted to remain neutral.\nA poll released on October 15 found Bolsonaro leading Haddad 52%-37%. Another 2% are undecided, and 9% intend to cast protest votes. Other polls of the second round have found similar results.\nPotential Policy Shifts\nMany economists argue that Brazil\u2019s economic recovery depends on the next president enacting extensive reforms, including measures to reduce pension costs, simplify the tax system, and liberalize trade flows. It remains unclear, however, whether either candidate would be willing or able to implement such changes. Bolsonaro expressed support for market-oriented reforms during the campaign but has advocated economic nationalism throughout his political career. Haddad has pledged to address the fiscal deficit, but he also intends to reverse most of the Temer Administration\u2019s reforms and to reassert a stronger role for the state in development. Even with presidential support, far-reaching reforms could run into opposition in Brazil\u2019s congress, where patronage-based parties will hold a crucial bloc of votes. Any deterioration in the Brazilian economy could weaken demand for U.S. exports, which totaled $63.7 billion in 2017.\nPreoccupied with domestic crises, Brazilian leaders have dedicated little attention to foreign affairs over the past five years. The next president could reassert Brazilian influence abroad, particularly if the domestic situation stabilizes. Bolsonaro has suggested he would pursue closer alignment with the United States. He would follow President Trump\u2019s lead in taking a more confrontational approach toward China and withdrawing from multilateral organizations and accords such as the Paris agreement on climate change. Haddad is more likely to maintain an independent foreign policy and Brazil\u2019s long-standing commitments to multilateralism, peaceful dispute settlement, and nonintervention. Like previous PT presidents, he likely would prioritize ties with other developing countries while maintaining cordial relations with the United States.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10976", "sha1": "b57496bdfb3f53148b24d9df2cb4f768b0649389", "filename": "files/20181016_IN10976_b57496bdfb3f53148b24d9df2cb4f768b0649389.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10976", "sha1": "7a7dab25d388558315c457321b2c805a621dde53", "filename": "files/20181016_IN10976_7a7dab25d388558315c457321b2c805a621dde53.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4847, "name": "Latin America, Caribbean, & Canada" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 585809, "date": "2018-10-01", "retrieved": "2018-10-02T15:19:43.325551", "title": "Brazil\u2019s Presidential Election", "summary": "Brazil\u2014the fifth most populous country and ninth-largest economy in the world\u2014is scheduled to hold general elections on October 7, 2018. The presidential race remains extremely volatile, and the outcome could lead to changes in the economic and foreign policies of a U.S. \u201cstrategic partner.\u201d\nDomestic Context\nThe 2018 election is taking place as Brazil struggles to emerge from a series of domestic crises. The country fell into a deep recession in 2014, due to a decline in global commodity prices and economic mismanagement under the center-left Workers Party (PT) government of President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). The unemployment rate more than doubled as real gross domestic product contracted by more than 8% from 2015 to 2016. Although economic growth returned in 2017, conditions remain difficult. More than 12% of the population is unemployed, and several million Brazilians who joined the country\u2019s lower middle class from 2004 to 2013 have fallen back into poverty. \nBrazil also is contending with the repercussions of massive corruption scandals. Since 2014, investigators have uncovered arrangements throughout the public sector in which businesses provided bribes and illegal campaign donations to politicians in exchange for contracts or other favorable government treatment. The revelations discredited much of Brazil\u2019s political establishment and contributed to the controversial impeachment and removal from office of President Rousseff in August 2016. These political crises have eroded citizens\u2019 faith in their democratic institutions; 28% of Brazilians expressed satisfaction with their democracy in 2017.\nPresident Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff, is deeply unpopular. His center-right government has enacted several major economic reforms, including measures to freeze government spending for 20 years, weaken worker protections, and allow greater private sector participation in Brazil\u2019s oil sector. Temer also has worked with the Brazilian congress to shield himself from corruption charges. Although international investors have applauded Temer\u2019s economic policies, 92% of Brazilians disapprove of his administration.\nPresidential Race\nThe current presidential front-runner is Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right congressman and former army captain backed by the small Social Liberal Party. Bolsonaro has been in congress since 1991 but is running as a political outsider. He is a longtime defender of Brazil\u2019s military dictatorship, and his running mate\u2014a retired army general\u2014suggested in 2017 that the armed forces might need to intervene to deal with corruption. In recent months, Bolsonaro has asserted that police officers should be free to kill suspected criminals and that land rights activists should be considered terrorists. Although his populist law-and-order message appeals to many Brazilians fed up with corruption and escalating violence, others have expressed alarm at his inflammatory comments and authoritarian sympathies. On September 6, Bolsonaro was stabbed at a political rally in an apparent assassination attempt. He was discharged from the hospital on September 29 but may not be able to return to the campaign trial before Election Day.\nFigure 1. Presidential Election Polls: September 2018\n/\nSource: IBOPE Intelig\u00eancia.\nMost of Brazil\u2019s political establishment is supporting Geraldo Alckmin, a former governor of S\u00e3o Paulo state from the center-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). Alckmin has embraced the Temer Administration\u2019s economic agenda and pledged to enact additional market-oriented reforms if elected president. The parties backing Alckmin\u2019s candidacy control more than half of the seats in the lower house of congress, giving him the largest share of Brazil\u2019s public campaign finance fund and nearly half of all political advertising time on television. Those advantages have not translated into popular support, however, as Alckmin has been unable to consolidate the centrist vote and has lost some traditional PSDB voters to Bolsonaro.\nFormer president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) of the PT, who is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption, led the presidential race for more than a year. Electoral authorities declared Lula ineligible to run on August 31, however, after an appeals court upheld his 2017 conviction. Lula remains popular among many Brazilians whose standard of living improved significantly during his tenure. Fernando Haddad, a former education minister and mayor of S\u00e3o Paulo, replaced Lula at the top of the PT ticket. He quickly won over many Lula supporters (see Figure 1) but continues to face competition for left-leaning voters from Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party. Gomes is a former member of congress, cabinet minister, and governor of the northeastern state Cear\u00e1. \nIf no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff scheduled for October 28, 2018. The latest polls suggest Bolsonaro would enter the second round trailing each of his principal competitors.\nPotential Policy Shifts\nMany economists argue that Brazil\u2019s economic recovery depends on the next president enacting extensive reforms, including measures to reduce pension costs, simplify the tax system, and liberalize trade flows. Alckmin has embraced such policy changes, but the other candidates are more ambivalent. Haddad and Gomes have pledged to address the fiscal deficit; however, they also intend to reverse most of the Temer Administration\u2019s reforms and reassert a stronger role for the state in development. Bolsonaro has expressed support for market-oriented policies during the campaign but has advocated economic nationalism throughout his political career. Whoever is elected may struggle to move legislation through Brazil\u2019s fragmented congress. Stronger economic growth in Brazil could bolster demand for U.S. exports, which totaled $63.7 billion in 2017.\nBrazilian leaders, who have been preoccupied with domestic crises, have dedicated little attention to foreign affairs over the past five years. The next president will face similar challenges but could reassert Brazilian influence abroad once the domestic situation stabilizes. Most of the candidates likely would maintain Brazil\u2019s long-standing commitments to multilateralism, peaceful dispute settlement, and non-intervention. Bolsonaro is more likely to break with tradition. He has called for closer alignment with President Trump and has announced his intention to withdraw from multilateral arrangements such as the Paris Agreement on climate change and the U.N. Human Rights Council. A more assertive Brazilian foreign policy could help address global challenges, such as the crisis in Venezuela. It also could lead to bilateral tensions, however, when U.S. and Brazilian interests diverge.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10976", "sha1": "94babe1f8912b6d9d4c539d6801652dc2ad19082", "filename": "files/20181001_IN10976_94babe1f8912b6d9d4c539d6801652dc2ad19082.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN10976_files&id=/0.png": "files/20181001_IN10976_images_a138fcbedbf05e58c8f4039195c56b2fb6e9b81d.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN10976", "sha1": "0affdc0c025fef93f21e86749a45e0010925e2ae", "filename": "files/20181001_IN10976_0affdc0c025fef93f21e86749a45e0010925e2ae.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights", "Foreign Affairs" ] }