{ "id": "IN11184", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN11184", "active": true, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 606995, "date": "2019-10-31", "retrieved": "2019-12-13T15:33:53.774458", "title": "Argentina\u2019s 2019 Elections", "summary": "Argentina\u2019s Peronist party (officially known as the Partido Justicialista) returned to power in October 27, 2019, presidential elections. Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez of the center-left Peronist Frente de Todos (Front for All) coalition defeated current President Mauricio Macri of the center-right Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) coalition by a vote of 48.1% to 40.4% in a six-candidate race. Argentina\u2019s economic crisis\u2014marked by recession, high inflation, and increasing poverty\u2014appeared to be the most important factor in the race. Although Macri\u2019s defeat was not unexpected, most polls had predicted Fern\u00e1ndez would win by between 15 and 20 percentage points. In Argentina\u2019s August 2019 combined unified primary (essentially an election dress rehearsal), Fern\u00e1ndez soundly defeated Macri by a vote of 47.7% to 32.1%. In the October election, however, Fern\u00e1ndez barely increased his support from the primary and Macri increased his support by 8 percentage points, suggesting ambivalence among some voters about the return of Peronists to power. Nevertheless, Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s performance in the October race was enough to win in a first round; had Fern\u00e1ndez received less than 45% of the vote, a second round would have been required. \nThe election also returns to government former President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, who ran on the Frente de Todos ticket as vice president. Some observers believe Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez, known for her combative style of leftist populism, could wield significant power as vice president; others emphasize that Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez, characterized as moderate and pragmatic, will control government policy. The new team is to be sworn in to a four-year term on December 10, 2019. The Fern\u00e1ndez government\u2019s most significant challenge likely will be the ongoing economic crisis, including relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). \nFigure 1. Argentina\u2019s October 2019 Presidential Election Results\n(97.13% counted)\n/\nSource: Direcci\u00f3n Nacional Electoral, Argentina, October 28, 2019.\nNotes: Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna ran on the centrist Federal Consensus ticket. Nicol\u00e1s del Ca\u00f1o ran on the Worker\u2019s Left Front\u2013Unity ticket. On the right, Juan G\u00f3mez and Jos\u00e9 Espert ran under the banner of two smaller parties.\nCongressional Elections\nAlso on October 27, Argentines elected one-third of the 72-member Senate and one-half of the 257-member Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Argentina\u2019s Congress. As predicted, Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s Frente de Todos coalition captured a majority of Senate seats; it will have 37 seats compared to 29 for Juntos por el Cambio. In the Chamber of Deputies, however, the balance of power will be relatively even between the two coalitions; at this juncture, it appears that Juntos por el Cambio will have 119 seats and Frente de Todos will have around 120 seats, with smaller parties holding the remaining seats. This could serve as a constraint on Fern\u00e1ndez and compel him to compromise with the opposition. \nElection Environment and Campaign\nMacri was elected president in 2015 by a narrow margin, defeating the candidate from the leftist faction of the Peronist party. Macri\u2019s election ended 12 years of rule by President N\u00e9stor Kirchner (2003-2007) and his wife, President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner (2007-2015), that had helped Argentina emerge from a severe economic crisis but was characterized by protectionist economic policies and increasing corruption. Macri ushered in orthodox economic policy changes, including lifting currency controls and agricultural export taxes, cutting electricity and gas subsidies, and reaching a deal with private creditors that ended a 15-year default. The economy emerged from recession in 2017, but a severe drought, high financing costs, and large budget deficits resulted in a return to recession in 2018. The Macri government turned for financial support to the IMF, which agreed to a $57 billion program, with some $44 billion disbursed as of July 2019.\nIn the aftermath of the August primary, capital flight increased and the peso lost about a quarter of its value. Macri responded by imposing currency controls and emergency measures to protect those suffering from the sharp devaluation and recession. His government also announced plans to postpone payments on bonds and payments to the IMF. \nThe state of the economy, with poverty rising to 35.4% in the first half of 2019 and, according to the IMF, inflation estimated at over 50% in 2019, made it difficult for Macri to gain enough support to overcome Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s lead. Nevertheless, Macri adopted \u201cYes, we can!\u201d as a campaign slogan and crossed the country asking voters for more time to turn around the economy. He emphasized that he was honest about the country\u2019s economic challenges, in contrast to the previous government\u2019s manipulation of economic statistics and pervasive corruption, including numerous charges against Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez.\nAlberto Fern\u00e1ndez, who served as Cabinet chief to President N\u00e9stor Kirchner, argued that Macri destroyed Argentina\u2019s economy and failed to erase poverty and inflation as promised. Fern\u00e1ndez was critical of the IMF\u2019s role for failing to ease Argentina\u2019s economic problems. Nevertheless, he pledged to honor Argentina\u2019s debts and renegotiate an IMF agreement that would spread out payments and relax fiscal targets. His campaign also vowed to combat hunger and poverty and to freeze electricity and gas prices. \nThe Fern\u00e1ndez-Fern\u00e1ndez ticket was formidable because it united the popular leftist faction of Peronism, led by Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez, and moderate Peronists represented by Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez. Significantly, Sergio Massa, a centrist Peronist who placed third in the 2015 presidential race, supported the coalition. \nPotential Foreign Policy Implications\nU.S.-Argentine relations improved considerably under Macri, with close engagement on bilateral, regional, and global issues, far different from the often-acrimonious relations during the Kirchner years. The 115th Congress expressed bipartisan support for a strong bilateral partnership (H.Res. 54; S.Res. 18). Macri criticized the antidemocratic actions of the Venezuelan government of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, and Argentina joined with other regional countries in 2017 to form the Lima Group seeking a resolution to the crisis. \nAfter Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s victory, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a statement, \u201cwe look forward to working with the Fern\u00e1ndez administration to promote regional security, prosperity, and rule-of-law.\u201d U.S. officials reportedly hope the new president will choose pragmatism over ideology in contending with Argentina\u2019s economic crisis. A point of contention in relations could be Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s foreign policy orientation, especially his approach toward Venezuela; he favors promoting dialogue and reportedly would break with the Lima Group\u2019s position. Some press reports maintain that China and Russia are seeking to augment their ties with a Fern\u00e1ndez government, which could raise U.S. concerns. \nAlso see CRS In Focus IF10991, Argentina\u2019s Economic Crisis, and CRS In Focus IF10932, Argentina: An Overview.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11184", "sha1": "0957f2eacf9fb7ee83bbd38a6f9372e671663511", "filename": "files/20191031_IN11184_0957f2eacf9fb7ee83bbd38a6f9372e671663511.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN11184_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191031_IN11184_images_80e0f836afc1b8359ea70d5275b3daf3a5d23145.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11184", "sha1": "221c44f01a2af4dd4a4ae06a34f3dd16bd4c2f30", "filename": "files/20191031_IN11184_221c44f01a2af4dd4a4ae06a34f3dd16bd4c2f30.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4847, "name": "Latin America, Caribbean, & Canada" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 606485, "date": "2019-10-22", "retrieved": "2019-10-23T22:16:56.562993", "title": "Argentina\u2019s 2019 Elections", "summary": "Argentina is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections on October 27, 2019. Polls indicate the center-right ticket of current President Mauricio Macri and his vice presidential running mate, Miguel \u00c1ngel Pichetto, likely will be soundly defeated by the center-left Peronist party (officially known as the Partido Justicialista) ticket of Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez for president and former President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner for vice president. Argentina\u2019s current economic crisis\u2014marked by recession, high inflation, and increasing poverty\u2014has been the most important factor in the race. The election will determine how Argentina responds to its economic crisis and could have implications for Argentina\u2019s foreign policy, including its approach toward Venezuela. \nFigure 1. Map of Argentina\n/\nSource: CRS.\nElectoral System and Recent Polling\nArgentina\u2019s August 2019 combined unified primary (essentially a dress rehearsal for the election) included 10 presidential candidates. Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s Frente de Todos (Front for All) ticket trounced Macri\u2019s Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) ticket by a vote of 47.7% to 32.1%. \nFor the October general election\u2014with six presidential candidates\u2014most opinion polls show Fern\u00e1ndez with more than 50% support, surpassing his primary victory, and Macri in the 32%-35% range. If no candidate receives 45% (or 40% and 10 percentage points ahead of the second-place candidate), then a second round would be held with the top two candidates on November 24. Macri is hoping he can force a second round, but some polls show him faring worse in a second round. The winner is to be inaugurated to a four-year term on December 10.\nOn October 27, Argentines also will elect one-half of the 257-member Chamber of Deputies (the lower house of Argentina\u2019s Congress) and one-third of the 72-member Senate. Some observers forecast that Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s Frente de Todos coalition could capture a majority in the Senate and the largest bloc, but not a majority, of seats in the Chamber of Deputies.\nElection Environment and Campaign\nMacri was elected president in 2015 by a narrow margin, defeating the candidate from the leftist faction of the Peronist party. Macri\u2019s election ended 12 years of rule by President N\u00e9stor Kirchner (2003-2007) and his wife, President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner (2007-2015), that had helped Argentina emerge from a severe economic crisis but was characterized by protectionist economic policies and increasing corruption. Macri ushered in orthodox economic policy changes, including lifting currency controls and agricultural export taxes, cutting electricity and gas subsidies, and reaching a deal with private creditors that ended a 15-year default. The economy emerged from recession in 2017, but a severe drought, high financing costs, and large budget deficits resulted in a return to recession in 2018. The Macri government turned for financial support to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which agreed to a $57 billion program, with some $44 billion disbursed as of July 2019.\nIn the aftermath of the August primary, capital flight increased and the peso lost about a quarter of its value. Macri responded by imposing currency controls to stabilize markets and emergency measures to protect those suffering from the sharp devaluation and recession. His government also announced plans to postpone payments on bonds and payments to the IMF. The IMF delayed a decision on whether to release a $5 billion tranche of funding to Argentina until after the election. \nThe poor state of the economy, with poverty rising to 35.4% in the first half of 2019 (an 8 percentage point increase over the same time in 2018) and, according to the IMF, inflation estimated at over 50% in 2019, is making it difficult for Macri to gain support beyond what he received in the primary. Nevertheless, Macri\u2014who adopted \u201cYes, we can!\u201d as a campaign slogan\u2014is crossing the country asking voters for more time to turn around the economy. He is emphasizing that he has been honest about the country\u2019s economic challenges, in contrast to the previous government\u2019s manipulation of economic statistics and pervasive corruption (including numerous charges against Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez).\nAlberto Fern\u00e1ndez, who served as Cabinet chief to President N\u00e9stor Kirchner, argues that Macri has destroyed Argentina\u2019s economy and failed to erase poverty and inflation as promised. Fern\u00e1ndez has been critical of the IMF\u2019s role for failing to ease Argentina\u2019s economic problems. Nevertheless, he has pledged to honor Argentina\u2019s debts and renegotiate an IMF agreement that would spread out payments and relax fiscal targets. His campaign has vowed to combat hunger and poverty and to freeze electricity and gas prices. \nThe Fern\u00e1ndez-Fern\u00e1ndez ticket is formidable, because it unites the popular leftist faction of Peronism, led by Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez, and moderate Peronists represented by Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez. Significantly, the coalition is supported by Sergio Massa, a centrist Peronist who place third in the 2015 presidential race; he was expected to run in 2019 but opted to run for Congress as part of the Frente de Todos coalition. \nPotential Foreign Policy Implications\nU.S.-Argentine relations improved considerably under President Macri, with closer engagement on bilateral, regional, and global issues, far different from the often-acrimonious period of relations during the Kirchner years. The 115th Congress expressed bipartisan support for a strong bilateral partnership (H.Res. 54; S.Res. 18). Macri has strongly criticized the antidemocratic actions of the government of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro government in Venezuela, and it joined with other regional countries in 2017 to form the Lima Group seeking a resolution to the crisis. Relations with Brazil and other countries led by market-oriented leaders in the region also improved under Macri. \nIn the event of a Fern\u00e1ndez victory, U.S. officials reportedly hope the new president will choose pragmatism over ideology in contending with Argentina\u2019s economic crisis, although there are concerns about Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner\u2019s potential influence. A point of contention in bilateral relations could be Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s stance on Venezuela; he favors promoting dialogue and reportedly would break with the Lima Group\u2019s position. Some press reports maintain that China and Russia are seeking to augment their ties with a Fern\u00e1ndez government, which could raise U.S. concerns. \nAlso see CRS In Focus IF10991, Argentina\u2019s Economic Crisis, by Rebecca M. Nelson, and CRS In Focus IF10932, Argentina: An Overview, by Mark P. Sullivan.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11184", "sha1": "67a85a3288f48933277e41394f6a767780268648", "filename": "files/20191022_IN11184_67a85a3288f48933277e41394f6a767780268648.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN11184_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191022_IN11184_images_fa1ee6cbea927decf176e4beb49c4dd56d563feb.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11184", "sha1": "c2b743150b10dec87e73f0ce19f1b345f9867cd6", "filename": "files/20191022_IN11184_c2b743150b10dec87e73f0ce19f1b345f9867cd6.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4847, "name": "Latin America, Caribbean, & Canada" } ] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights", "Foreign Affairs" ] }