{ "id": "IN11222", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN11222", "active": true, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 617154, "date": "2020-02-13", "retrieved": "2020-02-18T14:08:36.228366", "title": "Recent Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict", "summary": "On January 31, 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. The meeting occurred during the Senate\u2019s presidential impeachment trial and almost two months after the relaunch of international talks on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Pompeo expressed the United States\u2019 commitment to Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity and stated that the United States would continue to provide security assistance to Ukraine. \nPompeo also acknowledged Zelensky\u2019s efforts to invigorate a relatively dormant conflict-resolution process and reduce tensions around Russia-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether confidence-building efforts can lay the groundwork for discussions on thornier issues, including withdrawal of Russian forces and the legal status of Russia-controlled areas. New flare-ups of conflict also may overtake such efforts. \nThe United States supports Ukraine\u2019s efforts to pursue a diplomatic solution to the conflict. From 2017 to 2019, U.S. policy was directed mainly through the office of the Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. Ambassador Kurt Volker resigned from this position in September 2019 prior to the impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives; the position remains unfilled. \nMany Members of Congress condemn Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine (including occupation of Ukraine\u2019s Crimea region), promote continued sanctions against Russia, and support aid to Ukraine. Members may consider whether and how to further support Ukraine\u2019s recent efforts to reduce tensions and promote conflict resolution. \nFor more on Ukraine, see CRS Report R45008, Ukraine: Background, Conflict with Russia, and U.S. Policy.\nRelaunching Talks with Russia\nOn December 9, 2019, Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin met alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron in what is known as the Normandy Four, a grouping that supports implementation of the Minsk agreements, which structure efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine. \nAlthough Normandy Four officials have held regular meetings, leaders had not met as a group since 2016. After his April 2019 election, Zelensky sought to convene a Normandy leaders\u2019 summit, but Russia made such a meeting contingent on Ukraine\u2019s acceptance of the so-called Steinmeier formula, a previously defunct proposal for implementing some of the Minsk agreements\u2019 political elements (see below). In addition, the Ukrainian and Russian governments agreed to first implement a withdrawal of armed forces and hardware within \u201cdisengagement areas\u201d originally agreed in 2016 but never established. In another confidence-building measure, Ukraine and Russia each freed 35 detained individuals.\nResults of Talks\nBefore the December 2019 Normandy meeting, some observers expressed concern that Zelensky might agree to measures that were not in Ukraine\u2019s interest, due to his lack of foreign policy experience, the perceived eagerness of French President Macron to restore relations with Russia, and diminished U.S. engagement after Special Representative Volker\u2019s resignation. \nThe Normandy talks did not lead to major new commitments. They mostly produced expressions of support for the implementation or extension of prior commitments and confidence-building measures, including \na \u201cfull and comprehensive\u201d cease-fire (which has not held);\nrelease of all conflict-related detainees;\nestablishment of new disengagement areas;\nopening of new crossing points along the line of contact (adding to an existing five); and\nan updated demining plan.\nThe meeting also addressed contentious issues related to conflict settlement. First, the parties expressed \u201cinterest\u201d in the legal development of a \u201cspecial status\u201d for Russia-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. This status\u2014which the Minsk agreements stipulate but most Ukrainians appear to oppose\u2014is to provide the areas with special rights of local self-government. Ukraine has adopted and thrice extended a temporary law that establishes special status, but only after illegal armed formations withdraw from the areas and democratic local elections are held. \nSecond, the parties stated that they consider it \u201cnecessary\u201d to incorporate the Steinmeier formula into Ukrainian law, although it remains unclear when or if Ukraine will do so. The formula proposes a nuanced sequencing for holding local elections in and granting special status to Russia-controlled areas. According to the formula, special status is to come into effect on a temporary basis at the close of local elections. If an election observation mission (headed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE]) concludes elections were held in accordance with OSCE standards and Ukrainian law, special status is to become permanent. \nMany Ukrainians appear to oppose the Steinmeier formula, as they do special status more generally. In October 2019, the Ukrainian government\u2019s initial announcement that it would accept the Steinmeier formula was met with protests. Ukrainian opponents of the formula express concern that Moscow will manipulate the process to entrench Russia-controlled regimes. Many are concerned that Russia will refuse to withdraw its forces from the region or restore control of the border to Ukraine after local elections are held. In response, Ukrainian officials have said Russia should return control of the border before local elections, although this would alter the order of steps in the Minsk agreements. To date, the Russian government has rejected this proposal. \nOne concrete result from the Normandy meeting was the release of more detainees on December 29, 2019. Russia\u2019s proxy authorities in eastern Ukraine released 76 individuals; the Ukrainian government released 124. The Ukrainian government has estimated that more than 200 Ukrainian prisoners remain in Russia-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, the occupied Crimea region, and Russia. Talks on releasing detainees continue.\nObservers generally have welcomed the confidence-building measures agreed at the December 2019 meeting. Many, however, consider the meeting as only the start to a process that remains highly tenuous, especially as parties grapple with more contentious issues. The next Normandy summit is scheduled for April 2020. \nEnergy Agreement\nAlso in December 2019, Ukraine and Russia negotiated a contract for the continued transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to Europe. For years, Russia has sought to reduce its dependence on Ukraine for transit, an objective it has promoted through the construction of alternative pipelines (e.g., Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream). The contract provides for the transit of 65 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas in 2020, a volume equal to about 75% of the 2018 volume, and 40 BCM a year from 2021 to 2024. Many observers believe that in reducing its dependence on Ukraine for transit, Russia may become more aggressive in its policies toward Ukraine.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11222", "sha1": "21ba690942f76e64bc1101f373c487906d344e7d", "filename": "files/20200213_IN11222_21ba690942f76e64bc1101f373c487906d344e7d.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11222", "sha1": "fb89174cb49088ed1b793416f9d96d89e4c9fc5c", "filename": "files/20200213_IN11222_fb89174cb49088ed1b793416f9d96d89e4c9fc5c.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights" ] }