{ "id": "R45944", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "number": "R45944", "active": true, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 617212, "date": "2020-02-13", "retrieved": "2020-02-18T14:08:08.510729", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "The United Kingdom (UK) formally withdrew from membership in the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020. Under the withdrawal agreement negotiated by the two sides, the UK is to continue applying EU rules during a transition period scheduled to run through the end of 2020. During the transition period, the UK and the EU are expected to begin negotiating the terms of their future relationship, including trade and economic relations as well as cooperation on foreign policy, security, and a range of other issues. \nOverview of Developments\nAfter the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the UK favored leaving the EU, Brexit was originally scheduled to occur in March 2019. In early 2019, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between then-Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU. Boris Johnson became prime minister in July 2019, following May\u2019s resignation. Given continued deadlock over Brexit in the UK, the EU granted the UK a series of extensions. \nIn October 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) is to maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to preserve an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of the transition period, the UK (including Northern Ireland) is expected to leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. \nPrime Minister Johnson encountered difficulties in securing Parliament\u2019s approval of the new deal. Seeking to break the deadlock, the UK Parliament agreed to set an early general election for December 12, 2019. Johnson\u2019s Conservative Party won a decisive victory in the election, winning 365 out of 650 seats in the UK House of Commons. The result allowed the UK to ratify the new withdrawal agreement and end its EU membership. \nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nBrexit has considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States and the EU. The unlikely prospect in which the UK remains a member of the EU single market or customs union would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. Analysts predict the disruption resulting from Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK, and many businesses in the UK have been taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process, especially if it resulted in a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), but many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland remains fragile. Concerns about a hard border developing have receded in light of Johnson\u2019s election victory and Parliament\u2019s approval of the renegotiated withdrawal agreement. Still, Brexit has added to divisions within Northern Ireland and continues to pose challenges for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, economy, and, possibly in the longer term, its constitutional status as part of the UK. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence are likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK after Brexit. Congress likely would need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, stability, and economic development.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "c509d9390c5b6ffd533555fc0acaca4fcc4e2d9d", "filename": "files/20200213_R45944_c509d9390c5b6ffd533555fc0acaca4fcc4e2d9d.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20200213_R45944_images_a41a64b06a9924570e6481acb6ef8ca458bdfc1a.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20200213_R45944_images_b46e7bc5619d5f83274e67f1e2419e36e30fa9ce.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20200213_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "ffb96e02d01a7406f8aac5fad30f7d283b101e64", "filename": "files/20200213_R45944_ffb96e02d01a7406f8aac5fad30f7d283b101e64.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 613363, "date": "2020-01-13", "retrieved": "2020-01-14T23:13:45.294571", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "After the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) favored leaving the European Union (EU), Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between then-Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU. Boris Johnson became prime minister in July 2019, following May\u2019s resignation. Given continued political deadlock over Brexit in the UK, the EU granted the UK three deadline extensions, with the most recent lasting until January 31, 2020. \nRecent Developments\nOn October 17, 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) would maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of a transition period, scheduled to run through the end of 2020, the UK (including Northern Ireland) would leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. \nUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson encountered difficulties in securing Parliament\u2019s approval of the new deal. Seeking to break the deadlock, the UK Parliament agreed to set an early general election for December 12, 2019. Johnson\u2019s Conservative Party won a decisive victory in the election, winning 365 out of 650 seats in the UK House of Commons. The result indicates that the UK is likely to ratify the new withdrawal agreement by the January deadline, allowing the UK to end its EU membership. The withdrawal agreement calls for the UK to continue applying EU rules during the transition period. The UK will likely attempt to begin negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU as quickly as possible. \nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nBrexit has considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States and the EU. A Brexit in which the UK remained a member of the EU single market or customs union, a prospect greatly diminished by the December 2019 election result, would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. Analysts predict the disruption resulting from Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK, and many businesses in the UK have been taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process and lead to a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), but many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland remains fragile. Concerns about a hard border developing have receded somewhat in light of Johnson\u2019s election victory and the presumption that Parliament will pass the renegotiated withdrawal agreement before the Brexit deadline. Still, Brexit has added to divisions within Northern Ireland and continues to pose challenges for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, economy, and, possibly in the longer term, its constitutional status as part of the UK. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence are likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the UK after Brexit. Congress likely would need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, stability, and economic development.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "e6983a53efc0eae408e716d4a004cdc2b108cf80", "filename": "files/20200113_R45944_e6983a53efc0eae408e716d4a004cdc2b108cf80.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20200113_R45944_images_5517317a91d443ef93c45268dd7cc5ec7184e87c.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20200113_R45944_images_b46e7bc5619d5f83274e67f1e2419e36e30fa9ce.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20200113_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "987c8fb64ff3ca16c19b6770b20d6a6784d7fe0e", "filename": "files/20200113_R45944_987c8fb64ff3ca16c19b6770b20d6a6784d7fe0e.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 612913, "date": "2020-01-09", "retrieved": "2020-01-10T23:15:33.270478", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "After the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) favored leaving the European Union (EU), Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between then-Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU. Boris Johnson became prime minister in July 2019, following May\u2019s resignation. Given continued political deadlock over Brexit in the UK, the EU granted the UK three deadline extensions, with the most recent lasting until January 31, 2020. \nRecent Developments\nOn October 17, 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) would maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of a transition period, scheduled to run through the end of 2020, the UK (including Northern Ireland) would leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. \nUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson encountered difficulties in securing Parliament\u2019s approval of the new deal. Seeking to break the deadlock, the UK Parliament agreed to set an early general election for December 12, 2019. Johnson\u2019s Conservative Party won a decisive victory in the election, winning 365 out of 650 seats in the UK House of Commons. The result indicates that the UK is likely to ratify the new withdrawal agreement by the January deadline, allowing the UK to end its EU membership. The withdrawal agreement calls for the UK to continue applying EU rules during the transition period. The UK will likely attempt to begin negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU as quickly as possible. \nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nBrexit has considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States and the EU. A Brexit in which the UK remained a member of the EU single market or customs union, a prospect greatly diminished by the December 2019 election result, would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. Analysts predict the disruption resulting from Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK, and many businesses in the UK have been taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process and lead to a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), but concerns about the fragility of peace and security in Northern Ireland remain. Concerns about a hard border developing have receded somewhat in light of Johnson\u2019s election victory and the presumption that Parliament will pass the renegotiated withdrawal agreement before the Brexit deadline. Still, Brexit has added to divisions within Northern Ireland and continues to pose challenges for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, economy, and, possibly in the longer term, its constitutional status in the UK. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence are likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the UK after Brexit. Congress likely would need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process, stability, and economic development.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "11bf7efc6b1c74a53b025a7b9ed48bdae5b529ff", "filename": "files/20200109_R45944_11bf7efc6b1c74a53b025a7b9ed48bdae5b529ff.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20200109_R45944_images_5517317a91d443ef93c45268dd7cc5ec7184e87c.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20200109_R45944_images_b46e7bc5619d5f83274e67f1e2419e36e30fa9ce.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20200109_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "e37a7cb0775121b0db7ec0a5adb55f7a29f1cf85", "filename": "files/20200109_R45944_e37a7cb0775121b0db7ec0a5adb55f7a29f1cf85.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 607099, "date": "2019-10-30", "retrieved": "2019-11-04T23:05:16.200045", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "After the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) favored leaving the European Union (EU), Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019, however, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU without supporting any alternative. Given continued political deadlock over Brexit in the UK, the EU has granted the UK three deadline extensions. The most recent extension lasts until January 31, 2020. \nRecent Developments and Possible Scenarios\nOn October 17, 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) would maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of a transition period, the UK (including Northern Ireland) would leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. The UK and EU have sought to avoid a no-deal Brexit, a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated withdrawal agreement, due to concerns that it could cause considerable disruption with regard to the economy, trade, security, Northern Ireland, and other issues.\nUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson encountered difficulties in attempting to secure Parliament\u2019s approval of the new deal, however. Seeking to break the deadlock, the UK Parliament agreed to set an early general election for December 12, 2019. The dynamics of Brexit are likely to evolve in relation to the election\u2019s outcome. Possible scenarios include Parliament approving the new withdrawal agreement by the January deadline; a new government shifting to a soft Brexit, in which the UK remains in the EU customs union; continued political deadlock; another extension; and a no-deal Brexit.\nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nThe various Brexit scenarios have considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States. The UK likely would seek to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. A Brexit in which the UK remains a member of the EU single market or customs union would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. Analysts predict the disruption resulting from any form of Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK. A no-deal Brexit represents the most disruptive and unpredictable scenario, and many businesses in the UK are taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process and lead to a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Although conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), concerns about the fragility of peace and security in Northern Ireland remain. A Brexit that results in a hard border likely would have negative economic effects for Northern Ireland and constitute a pressure point in the continuing implementation of the peace agreement. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence is likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the UK after Brexit. Congress likely would need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process and economy.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "322961cf6f965a0407281eb67d44ba66b62c4201", "filename": "files/20191030_R45944_322961cf6f965a0407281eb67d44ba66b62c4201.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20191030_R45944_images_5517317a91d443ef93c45268dd7cc5ec7184e87c.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20191030_R45944_images_b46e7bc5619d5f83274e67f1e2419e36e30fa9ce.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191030_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "23e8e1773fa5850ac7675b8c93cbd1f56e25ebfc", "filename": "files/20191030_R45944_23e8e1773fa5850ac7675b8c93cbd1f56e25ebfc.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 606663, "date": "2019-10-24", "retrieved": "2019-10-25T22:13:09.920275", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "After the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) favored leaving the European Union (EU), Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019, however, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU without supporting any alternative. In April 2019, the EU granted the UK an extension until October 31, 2019. A further extension is pending.\nRecent Developments and Possible Scenarios\nOn October 17, 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a new withdrawal agreement altering the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which was a main sticking point to Parliament passing the original deal. Under the new deal, Northern Ireland (part of the UK) would maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (essentially creating a customs border in the Irish Sea) to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. At the end of a transition period, the UK (including Northern Ireland) would leave the EU customs union and pursue an independent national trade policy. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces numerous challenges as he attempts to secure Parliament\u2019s approval of the new deal. \nThe UK and EU have sought to avoid a no-deal Brexit, a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated withdrawal agreement, due to concerns that it could cause considerable disruption with regard to the economy, trade, security, Northern Ireland, and other issues. In September 2019, Parliament passed legislation that required the UK government to request another extension on October 19. If granted by the EU, the extension could last until January 31, 2020. \nThe dynamics of Brexit are likely to evolve in relation to numerous unresolved questions. Possible scenarios include Parliament approving or rejecting the new withdrawal agreement, another extension, a no-deal Brexit, and an early general election in the UK.\nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nThe various Brexit scenarios have considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States. The UK likely would seek to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. A Brexit in which the UK remains a member of the EU single market or customs union would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. Analysts predict the disruption resulting from any form of Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK. A no-deal Brexit represents the most disruptive and unpredictable scenario, and many businesses in the UK are taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process and lead to a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Although conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), concerns about the fragility of peace and security in Northern Ireland remain. A Brexit that results in a hard border likely would have negative economic effects for Northern Ireland and constitute a pressure point in the continuing implementation of the peace agreement. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence is likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the UK after Brexit. Congress likely would need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process and economy.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "aa010d3bfcc8b22d45497aeb8adf8a40d69744ea", "filename": "files/20191024_R45944_aa010d3bfcc8b22d45497aeb8adf8a40d69744ea.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20191024_R45944_images_5517317a91d443ef93c45268dd7cc5ec7184e87c.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20191024_R45944_images_b46e7bc5619d5f83274e67f1e2419e36e30fa9ce.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191024_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "ffb82dcfa5f7efd93544e2e4d95ee04d3e97de35", "filename": "files/20191024_R45944_ffb82dcfa5f7efd93544e2e4d95ee04d3e97de35.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4786, "name": "Europe, Russia, & Eurasia" } ] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 605932, "date": "2019-10-04", "retrieved": "2019-10-10T22:19:05.926517", "title": "Brexit: Status and Outlook", "summary": "After the 2016 referendum in which 52% of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) favored leaving the European Union (EU), Brexit was originally scheduled to occur on March 29, 2019. In early 2019, however, Parliament repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s government and the EU without supporting any alternative. In April 2019, the EU granted the UK an extension until October 31, 2019.\nRecent Developments and Possible Scenarios\nAfter becoming Prime Minister in July 2019, Boris Johnson asserted that Brexit will take place on October 31 and that he will not request another extension. Johnson declared his intention to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU that drops the Northern Ireland backstop provision, which would keep the UK in the EU customs union until the two sides agreed on their future trade relationship. The backstop provision was included in the rejected withdrawal agreement as an insurance policy to maintain an open border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state) while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market. The backstop was a main reason many Members of Parliament voted against the deal. \nThe UK and EU have sought to avoid a no-deal Brexit, a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated withdrawal agreement, due to concerns that it could cause considerable disruption with regard to the economy, trade, security, Northern Ireland, and other issues. In September 2019, Parliament passed legislation requiring the UK government to request another extension by October 19 if it has not reached a withdrawal agreement with the EU. \nThe dynamics of Brexit are likely to evolve in relation to pivotal events and deadlines in October 2019. Possible scenarios include a new withdrawal agreement, another extension, a no-deal Brexit, and an early general election in the UK.\nBrexit, Trade, and Economic Impact\nThe various Brexit scenarios have considerable implications for the UK\u2019s trade arrangements. Outside the EU customs union, the UK would regain an independent national trade policy, a major selling point for many Brexit supporters who advocate negotiating new bilateral trade deals around the world, including with the United States. The UK likely would seek to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. A Brexit in which the UK remains a member of the EU single market or customs union would provide more barrier-free access to the EU, but the UK would have to follow most EU rules without having a say in how they are made. Analysts predict that the disruption resulting from any form of Brexit likely will have at least a short-term negative economic impact on the UK. A no-deal Brexit represents the most disruptive and unpredictable scenario, and many businesses in the UK are taking steps to mitigate potential economic losses. \nNorthern Ireland\nMany observers have expressed concerns that Brexit could destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process and lead to a hard border with physical infrastructure and customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Although conditions have improved considerably since the 1998 peace accord (known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement), concerns about the fragility of peace and security in Northern Ireland remain. A Brexit that results in a hard border likely would have negative economic effects for Northern Ireland and constitute a pressure point in the continuing implementation of the peace agreement. \nU.S.-UK Relations and Congressional Interest\nPresident Trump and Administration officials have expressed support for Brexit. Members of Congress hold mixed views. The UK likely will remain a leading U.S. partner in addressing many foreign policy and security challenges, but Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK\u2019s global role and influence is likely to be enhanced or diminished. In 2018, the Administration notified Congress of its intention to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the UK after Brexit. Congress would likely need to pass implementing legislation before the potential FTA could enter into force. Many in Congress also are concerned about Brexit\u2019s possible implications for Northern Ireland\u2019s peace process and economy.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/R45944", "sha1": "3624e65d43b1b7749b15cbf96ba04cbfcc1146dd", "filename": "files/20191004_R45944_3624e65d43b1b7749b15cbf96ba04cbfcc1146dd.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/2.png": "files/20191004_R45944_images_5517317a91d443ef93c45268dd7cc5ec7184e87c.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/1.png": "files/20191004_R45944_images_f32260dd27f5fa50a7660b1487571995866c40be.png", "/products/Getimages/?directory=R/html/R45944_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191004_R45944_images_887d991972c9b391cd5039ccf6eff069bb6f7378.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/R45944", "sha1": "4a7a91e68d6aaed77a43bf39b41827e9600ff09e", "filename": "files/20191004_R45944_4a7a91e68d6aaed77a43bf39b41827e9600ff09e.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] } ], "topics": [ "Constitutional Questions", "Economic Policy", "European Affairs", "Foreign Affairs", "Industry and Trade", "National Defense" ] }