{ "id": "RL33622", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "number": "RL33622", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com, University of North Texas Libraries Government Documents Department", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 350172, "date": "2006-09-03", "retrieved": "2016-04-07T18:51:05.478029", "title": "Cuba\u2019s Future Political Scenarios and U.S. Policy Approaches", "summary": "Cuba has remained a hard-line communist state under Fidel Castro for more than 47 years, but Fidel\u2019s July 31, 2006 announcement that he was ceding political power to his brother Ra\u00fal for several weeks in order to recover from surgery could be the beginning of a political transition. Over the past few years, there has been increased speculation about Cuba\u2019s future without Fidel, who turned 80 on August 13, 2006. While previous predictions about Fidel\u2019s imminent demise proved premature, his recent surgery and advanced age make the date of his permanent departure from the political scene all the closer. Before his recent surgery, observers discerned several potential scenarios for Cuba\u2019s future after Fidel. These fit into three broad categories: the continuation of a communist government; a military government; or a democratic transition or fully democratic government. According to most observers, the most likely scenario, at least in the short term, is a successor communist government led by Ra\u00fal Castro. This the most likely scenario for a variety of reasons, but especially because of Ra\u00fal\u2019s official designation as successor and his position as leader of the Cuban military.\nFor a number of years, the U.S. government has begun to plan for Cuba without Fidel at the helm. This has included examining transition issues and appointing a State Department Cuba Transition Coordinator. Assistance has been provided\u2014primarily through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), but also through the Department of State\u2014to fund projects aimed at promoting a democratic transition in Cuba. The Bush Administration established an inter-agency Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba to help plan for Cuba\u2019s transition to democracy and to help Cubans hasten the transition to democracy. Some observers, however, have questioned the adequacy of the transition planning, in part because it does not recognize the likelihood of a successor communist government headed by Fidel\u2019s brother Ra\u00fal.\nIn the new context of Fidel\u2019s transfer of power, there are two broad policy approaches to contend with political change in Cuba: a stay-the-course or status-quo approach that would maintain the U.S. dual-track policy of isolating the Cuban government while providing support to the Cuban people; and an approach aimed at influencing the Cuban government and Cuban society through increased contact and engagement. Some Members support the Administration\u2019s stay-the-course policy approach through assistance to strengthen Cuban civil society while maintaining U.S. economic sanctions. Other Members advocate a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba in the direction of engagement, easing sanctions, or providing the President with flexibility to respond to change in Cuba.\nThis report will not be updated. It was written in the aftermath of Fidel Castro\u2019s July 2006 announcement that he was temporarily stepping down from power, and provides analysis of potential future political scenarios for Cuba after Fidel Castro and U.S. policy implications and approaches. For further information, see CRS Report RL33819, Cuba: Issues for the 110th Congress.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/RL33622", "sha1": "c222f4d7209e6f914444cd49fba3618fa1c77443", "filename": "files/20060903_RL33622_c222f4d7209e6f914444cd49fba3618fa1c77443.html", "images": null }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/RL33622", "sha1": "20bc87072ec7e3a873665f515177e28d0c87a141", "filename": "files/20060903_RL33622_20bc87072ec7e3a873665f515177e28d0c87a141.pdf", "images": null } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "University of North Texas Libraries Government Documents Department", "sourceLink": "https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs9519/", "id": "RL33622 2006-09-01", "date": "2006-09-01", "retrieved": "2006-12-05T13:33:21", "title": "Cuba After Fidel Castro: U.S. Policy Implications and Approaches", "summary": "In the new context of Fidel\u2019s transfer of power, there are two broad policy approaches to contend with political change in Cuba: a stay-the-course or status-quo approach that would maintain the U.S. dual-track policy of isolating the Cuban government while providing support to the Cuban people; and an approach aimed at influencing the Cuban government and Cuban society through increased contact and engagement.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORT", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "PDF", "filename": "files/20060901_RL33622_cdbdc01af323785d9b5578de1dd7d547cec305b6.pdf" }, { "format": "HTML", "filename": "files/20060901_RL33622_cdbdc01af323785d9b5578de1dd7d547cec305b6.html" } ], "topics": [ { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign policy", "name": "Foreign policy" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Human rights", "name": "Human rights" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Communism", "name": "Communism" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Communist leadership", "name": "Communist leadership" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations - Cuba - U.S.", "name": "Foreign relations - Cuba - U.S." }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations - U.S. - Cuba", "name": "Foreign relations - U.S. - Cuba" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Civil liberties", "name": "Civil liberties" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "International affairs", "name": "International affairs" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Politics and government", "name": "Politics and government" } ] }, { "source": "University of North Texas Libraries Government Documents Department", "sourceLink": "https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs9518/", "id": "RL33622 2006-08-23", "date": "2006-08-23", "retrieved": "2006-12-05T13:32:35", "title": "Cuba After Fidel Castro: U.S. Policy Implications and Approaches", "summary": "In the new context of Fidel\u2019s transfer of power, there are two broad policy approaches to contend with political change in Cuba: a stay-the-course or status-quo approach that would maintain the U.S. dual-track policy of isolating the Cuban government while providing support to the Cuban people; and an approach aimed at influencing the Cuban government and Cuban society through increased contact and engagement.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORT", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "PDF", "filename": "files/20060823_RL33622_95e677fee1b9e9878e9939568328858b0a74e8ad.pdf" }, { "format": "HTML", "filename": "files/20060823_RL33622_95e677fee1b9e9878e9939568328858b0a74e8ad.html" } ], "topics": [ { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign policy", "name": "Foreign policy" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Human rights", "name": "Human rights" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Communism", "name": "Communism" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Communist leadership", "name": "Communist leadership" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations - Cuba - U.S.", "name": "Foreign relations - Cuba - U.S." }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations - U.S. - Cuba", "name": "Foreign relations - U.S. - Cuba" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Civil liberties", "name": "Civil liberties" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "International affairs", "name": "International affairs" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Politics and government", "name": "Politics and government" } ] } ], "topics": [] }