{ "id": "RL34487", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "number": "RL34487", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com, University of North Texas Libraries Government Documents Department", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 344450, "date": "2009-02-19", "retrieved": "2016-04-07T02:45:01.464859", "title": "Japan\u2019s Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests", "summary": "Japan, traditionally one of the most prominent advocates of the international non-proliferation regime, has consistently pledged to forswear nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, evolving circumstances in Northeast Asia, particularly North Korea\u2019s nuclear test in October 2006 and China\u2019s ongoing military modernization drive, have raised new questions about Japan\u2019s vulnerability to potential adversaries and, therefore, the appeal of developing an independent nuclear deterrent. The previous taboo within the Japanese political community of discussing a nuclear weapons capability appears to have been broken, as several officials and opinion leaders have urged an open debate on the topic. Despite these factors, a strong consensus\u2014both in Japan and among Japan watchers\u2014remains that Japan will not pursue the nuclear option in the short-to-medium term.\nThis paper examines the prospects for Japan pursuing a nuclear weapons capability by assessing the existing technical infrastructure of its extensive civilian nuclear energy program. It explores the range of challenges that Japan would have to overcome to transform its current program into a military program. Presently, Japan appears to lack several of the prerequisites for a full-scale nuclear weapons deterrent: expertise on bomb design, reliable delivery vehicles, an intelligence program to protect and conceal assets, and sites for nuclear testing. In addition, a range of legal and political restraints on Japan\u2019s development of nuclear weapons, including averse public and elite opinion, restrictive domestic laws and practices, and the negative diplomatic consequences of abandoning its traditional approach is analyzed.\nAny reconsideration and/or shift of Japan\u2019s policy of nuclear abstention would have significant implications for U.S. policy in East Asia. In this report, an examination of the factors driving Japan\u2019s decision-making\u2014most prominently, the strength of the U.S. security guarantee\u2014analyzes how the nuclear debate in Japan affects U.S. security interests in the region. Globally, Japan\u2019s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would damage the world\u2019s most durable international non-proliferation regime. Regionally, Japan \u201cgoing nuclear\u201d could set off an arms race with China, South Korea, and Taiwan. India and/or Pakistan may then feel compelled to further expand or modernize their own nuclear weapons capabilities. Bilaterally, assuming that Japan made the decision without U.S. support, the move could indicate a lack of trust in the U.S. commitment to defend Japan. An erosion in the U.S.-Japan alliance could upset the geopolitical balance in East Asia, a shift that could strengthen China\u2019s position as an emerging hegemonic power. All of these ramifications would likely be deeply destabilizing for the security of the Asia Pacific region and beyond.\nThis report will be updated as circumstances warrant.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/RL34487", "sha1": "33a80547b551826937d95cde962c667179877b2b", "filename": "files/20090219_RL34487_33a80547b551826937d95cde962c667179877b2b.html", "images": null }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/RL34487", "sha1": "3fa12a2223e51eed1817c7c4097f6a7048628dc7", "filename": "files/20090219_RL34487_3fa12a2223e51eed1817c7c4097f6a7048628dc7.pdf", "images": null } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "University of North Texas Libraries Government Documents Department", "sourceLink": "https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc462029/", "id": "RL34487_2008May09", "date": "2008-05-09", "retrieved": "2014-12-05T09:57:41", "title": "Japan's Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests", "summary": "This paper examines the prospects for Japan pursuing a nuclear weapons capability by assessing the existing technical infrastructure of its extensive civilian nuclear energy program. It explores the range of challenges that Japan would have to overcome to transform its current program into a military program. In addition, a range of legal and political restraints on Japan's development of nuclear weapons, including averse public and elite opinion, restrictive domestic laws and practices, and the negative diplomatic consequences of abandoning its traditional approach is analyzed.", "type": "CRS Report", "typeId": "REPORT", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "PDF", "filename": "files/20080509_RL34487_432949e03043a9c95ff3faad662c848c86b59691.pdf" }, { "format": "HTML", "filename": "files/20080509_RL34487_432949e03043a9c95ff3faad662c848c86b59691.html" } ], "topics": [ { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations -- Japan -- U.S.", "name": "Foreign relations -- Japan -- U.S." }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign relations -- U.S. -- Japan", "name": "Foreign relations -- U.S. -- Japan" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Nuclear weapons", "name": "Nuclear weapons" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Nuclear nonproliferation", "name": "Nuclear nonproliferation" }, { "source": "LIV", "id": "Foreign policy", "name": "Foreign policy" } ] } ], "topics": [ "Energy Policy", "Intelligence and National Security", "National Defense" ] }